Europe and Middle Powers: EU's relations with India, Brazil and Turkey

The seminar, held on 18 February 2025, brought together experts to discuss how non-European actors and the “middle powers” – India, Brazil, and Turkey – fit into the evolving new global order. Chaired by Dimitar Bechev, Director of the Dahrendorf Programme at the European Studies Centre, the panel featured Kira Huju, Fellow in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Rodrigo Fracalossi de Moraes, Researcher on Public Policies and International Relations at the Department of International Development at Oxford, and Galip Dalay, SEESOX.

The discussion began with a reflection on the importance of moving away from a Eurocentric viewpoint. The speakers examined how historical legacies, power dynamics, and past relationships continue to shape the role of non-European countries in global affairs. There was a strong emphasis on understanding how different regions engage with global institutions and major powers while also navigating their own internal political landscapes.

Huju, a former Oxford student and an expert on India, highlighted two key signals in the evolving relationship between the European Union and India. The first was the EU’s increasing eagerness to deepen ties with India, reflecting a shift in strategic priorities. The second was an implicit acknowledgment that the EU has significantly underperformed in its engagement with India, leaving much of the relationship’s potential unexplored. While the EU aspires to establish itself as a geopolitical player in the Indo-Pacific, this effort is largely confined to individual member states, such as France, which has prioritised defence cooperation with India. However, these national efforts do not necessarily translate into a coherent EU-wide approach.

The new European Parliament and European Commission: Who won the 2024 power-play in Brussels?

On February 11, 2025, SEESOX, together with the European Studies Centre, hosted an insightful seminar featuring Klaus Welle, former Secretary General of the European Parliament, and Anthony Teasdale, visiting professor in Practice at the European Institute of the London School of Economics. The event, chaired by Catherine Briddick, Andrew W Mellon Associate Professor of International Human Rights and Refugee Law at St Antony’s College, Oxford, focused on the shifting power dynamics in Brussels following the 2024 European elections, highlighting governance challenges, parliamentary realignments, and the future direction of European integration.

Klaus Welle opened the discussion by emphasising the unique structure of the European Parliament. Unlike national systems where power is fused within a parliamentary majority, the European Union (EU) operates through a diffusion of power. This federal-style system ensures that no single party dominates; instead, the EU is governed by a complex web of institutions—the Commission, the Parliament, and the Council—where alliances are essential to achieving legislative goals.

A key takeaway from Welle’s remarks was the changing composition of the European Parliament. The 2024 elections resulted in a divided assembly, with one-third of members aligned with left-wing parties, a strong centrist faction, and a growing presence of right-wing representatives. The steady rise of right-wing populist parties across member states, such as Le Pen’s National Rally in France and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), mirrors the broader European political landscape. Notably, the so-called “progressive majority” that had characterised the previous Parliament has now disappeared, with left-leaning parties falling below the 45% threshold necessary to form a stable coalition.

The Oxford Handbook of Religion in Turkey

On 28 January, the Oxford Middle East Centre joined SEESOX to host the launch of The Oxford Handbook of Religion in Turkey. The event marked the opening of the Michaelmas term’s Tuesday Seminar series and celebrated the publication of what promises to become a landmark volume in the study of religion and Turkish society.

The evening was introduced by Professor Eugene Rogan, who stood in for Professor Laurent Mignon—one of the book’s contributors and the original instigator of the launch event—who was unfortunately unwell. Professor Rogan warmly acknowledged Professor Mignon’s contribution to the volume and to the broader field of Turkish literary and religious studies, and he expressed what many in the audience likely felt: a desire to hear more from the editors and contributors about a book that brings together some of the finest contemporary scholarship on religion in Turkey.

Editors Professor Caroline Tee (University of Chester) and Dr Fabio Vicini (University of Edinburgh) opened the panel by sharing the origins and aims of the project. Conceived in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, the idea for the handbook grew from a desire for scholarly collaboration during a time of unprecedented isolation. Yet it was also driven by a clear sense that something was missing from the field. As Tee explained, there was a noticeable gap in accessible, interdisciplinary, and comprehensive studies on religion in Turkey—particularly ones that could serve both as teaching tools and as references for researchers.

The future of European security architecture

On 31 January 2025, the Eastern Mediterranean Programme at SEESOX supported a dialogue on the future of European security architecture, which was hosted by the Russian and East European Studies’ (REES) Discussion Group.

The panel of speakers consisted of three renowned individuals with a multifaceted expertise on the matter: Captain Kurt Engelen (Centre for the Study of Security and Defence of the Royal Higher Institute for Defence (RHID) of Belgium; General (ret.) Riho Terras (European Parliament and former Commander of the Estonian Armed Forces); and Kyriacos Kouros. (High Commissioner of Cyprus to the United Kingdom).

Finding solutions to energy insecurity will further stimulate growth, which the most important factor in regaining confidence amongst the developing world, which has recently been damaged.

Nonetheless, the importance of thwarting Russia’s advance in Ukraine was noted, with some speakers suggesting that ‘Ukraine is not losing’, due to the immense casualty-per-mile-gained ratio Russia faces. Concurrently, two of the speakers noted the importance of citizens actively engaging in supporting Ukraine, through personal initiatives and donations, with the war currently costing each EU citizen, on average, not more than €3 per month. That said, the necessity for EU member states to start spending more on defence was raised, with some speakers noting their regret that Ireland commits a mere 0.5% on defence, even though an Irish official was appointed to head the European Union Military Committee (EUMC), with Austria only committing 0.7% of its GDP.

Russia's war against Ukraine: Consequences for South East Europe

On December 3 2024, SEESOX hosted an insightful seminar on the repercussions of Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine on South East Europe. The discussion brought together a panel of experts, including Julie Newton, Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford, Maxim Samorukov, Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre, Kyril Drezov, Lecturer in Politics at Keele University, and Vuk Vuksanovic, Senior Researcher at Belgrade Centre for Security Policy. The seminar was chaired by Othon Anastasakis. Their presentations explored how Russia's geopolitical strategies and the ongoing conflict ripple across the Balkans and Southeast Europe, affecting energy security, political alliances, and regional stability.

Newton opened the seminar by contextualising Southeast Europe’s role in Russia’s broader confrontation with the West. She emphasised that the region represents a "grey zone" in European security, where external interventions by both Russia and the West remain possible. This grey zone is of strategic importance to Russia, as it seeks to undermine Western cohesion while preserving its influence through populist and illiberal allies in countries like Serbia and Hungary. At the same time, the region presents challenges for the West, as vulnerabilities in governance and societal frustration make it fertile ground for populism and external manipulation.

Newton highlighted Russia’s mid-term goals, including neutralising threats emanating from Ukraine, reshaping European security to deter NATO, and shifting the global balance of power away from Western dominance toward a Russia-China-led alternative. She argued that the Southeast region will remain a dynamic battleground in this larger geopolitical conflict.

Turkey and the European Union – Moving beyond membership with external differentiated integration

On November 12, 2024, SEESOX hosted a seminar featuring Meltem Müftüler-Baç, Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Sabancı University, and Galip Dalay, senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and a doctoral researcher at St Antony’s College, Oxford. Chaired by Dimitar Bechev, the seminar explored the historical evolution of Turkey-EU relations, efforts in political and economic integration, and the future prospects of external differentiated integration as an alternative to full EU membership.

Müftüler-Baç began by tracing Turkey’s engagement with the EU, which dates back to its 1959 application for associate membership in the European Economic Community and the 1963 Ankara Agreement. These milestones provided a legal basis for Turkey’s eligibility for membership, though not a guarantee. While Turkey officially opened accession negotiations in 2005, progress has stagnated due to political and economic concerns, including opposition from France and Germany. In 2019, the European Parliament formally called for suspending negotiations, citing democratic backsliding and concerns over the rule of law. Despite these challenges, Müftüler-Baç highlighted alternative pathways for Turkey to maintain strong ties with the EU, such as adopting frameworks akin to Norway, Iceland, or the United Kingdom, which allow for economic integration without full political membership. Turkey’s ties with the EU were described as a “strategic partnership” by its foreign ministry in 2016-2017, although this concept remains vaguely defined and lacks institutional clarity.

Rethinking Europe’s East-West divide: Who will lead the EU?

On 5 November 2025, SEESOX, and  the European Studies Centre, hosted a seminar discussing how Europe’s East-West divide has shaped the power dynamics within the EU, focusing on the representation and influence of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The panel featured Zselyke Csaky (Centre for European Reform), Hussein Kassim (University of Warwick), Mihail Chiru (University of Oxford), and Krisi Raik (International Centre for Defence and Security). The session, chaired by Eli Gateva (Oxford DPIR), examined CEE representation within EU institutions, their influence in shaping EU policy, and the challenges they face in advancing their agendas.

Representation gaps in EU leadership
Zselyke Csaky began the seminar by highlighting the persistent underrepresentation of CEE countries in EU leadership. Despite accounting for 40% of EU member states and 23% of the population, CEE nationals held only 6% of top EU leadership roles in 2024, with no CEE citizens appointed to senior positions in 2023. Csaky pointed out that while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spotlighted the strategic importance of CEE countries, representation remains skewed in favor of older member states, particularly in influential positions.

Csaky noted that established networks within EU institutions often hinder CEE countries' integration. While the European Commission has a relatively balanced setup, influential positions still disproportionately go to nationals of older member states. Hungary remains an exception, wielding symbolic influence through Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose controversial policies have amplified Hungary’s visibility but may ultimately undermine broader CEE interests. Poland, despite its size and potential for regional leadership, faces limitations due to political instability and challenges in coalition-building.