tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33363134692780650182024-03-12T23:55:56.877+00:00The SEESOX BlogReporting on what's happening at SEESOX, the topics being discussed, the theories put forward, and the points madeSEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.comBlogger255125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-46157592391874931072023-06-20T11:18:00.005+01:002023-07-04T13:49:59.289+01:00Turkey’s general elections 2023: What next?”<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1IflXnApttQ9u7o0uv0JYjK8yXGldoP-c48n7rB0cffA7gHyvS3NGn_cKmcYYUVZWuDE0KGtb0WQy7kXbJFFyVhxdb9HuiAu4Li9a8o4v6oUfY9YgIdIp24uk28pGzO9ogBgpcWTfDYSB6mDKE79dX3tjV_y9o5Iaqxdt21kBAkw87-BENS0lKjb7lT_/s3022/Turkey%20elections.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1690" data-original-width="3022" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1IflXnApttQ9u7o0uv0JYjK8yXGldoP-c48n7rB0cffA7gHyvS3NGn_cKmcYYUVZWuDE0KGtb0WQy7kXbJFFyVhxdb9HuiAu4Li9a8o4v6oUfY9YgIdIp24uk28pGzO9ogBgpcWTfDYSB6mDKE79dX3tjV_y9o5Iaqxdt21kBAkw87-BENS0lKjb7lT_/s320/Turkey%20elections.png" width="320" /></a></div>On the 14th of June 2023, the European Studies Centre hosted its final event of the academic year, entitled “Turkey’s general elections 2023: What next?” The panellists were Mehmet Karli (SEESOX), Karabekir Akkoyunlu (SOAS University of London), and Dimitar Bechev (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies). Othon Anastasakis (St Antony’s College, Oxford) chaired the event. <br /><br />In his presentation, Karli reviewed voting trends in Turkey and outlined six reasons for the failure of the united opposition to Erdogan. He pointed out that Erdogan’s vote share has stayed more or less the same since 2014, and that the only difference in this election was that the opposition had consolidated. Despite this achievement and other factors, such as the recent earthquake and the floundering economy, the opposition has lost yet another election. On the parliamentary level, the AKP scored one of its worst results in recent history, but this was made up for by other parties in the ruling alliance. Meanwhile, the CHP received a historically low share of MPs despite staying on a similar level. <br /><br />The first reason for the opposition’s failure was Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Rather than choosing a consensus candidate, the CHP insisted on fielding Kılıçdaroğlu and alienated a number of voters from the allied IYIP. Secondly, entering the parliamentary elections as a unitary alliance proved to be a failing strategy. Most of the traditional conservative Islamists who could have voted for one of the smaller parties decided not to vote for opposition candidates because they were running under the CHP banner. Furthermore, As the Kurdish party left the alliance and did not put forward a candidate, its voting share went down significantly.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Thirdly, the opposition underestimated the power of government propaganda and communication. In the AKP’s nationalistic and militaristic campaign, fake news accused the opposition of allying with the PKK. Instead of a timely response, however, the opposition continued to rely on the government-friendly mainstream media. Fourthly, the opposition overestimated the impacts of the economic crisis, which has not yet reached the level at which voters change their traditional allegiances. The government has managed to stave off unemployment through its economic heterodoxy, and consumer confidence has rebounded since the beginning of the year. <br /><br />Fifthly, the opposition underestimated the sociopolitical power of the governing coalition. The AKP has 12 million members and controls many foundations and associations that create jobs, environments for socialisation, and tight-knit communities. Sixthly, the opposition lacked a convincing and inspiring vision for a new Turkey. It promised to respect democracy and return to a parliamentary system, but it did not articulate a creative and positive message for the electorate. <br /><br />Akkoyunlu began his presentation with two questions: How, despite two decades in power, an economic crisis, and a botched earthquake response, did Erdogan manage to win? And conversely, why have his victories been so narrow in comparison to, say, Russia’s Putin? Secondly, in what situation does the latest election leave Turkey? <br /><br />In the last four elections, Erdogan received very similar results, consistently attracting around 52% of the vote. There are three reasons for Erdogan’s continued but marginal victories. For one, Erdogan has managed to cement polarisation in a way that favours the AKP. Dissatisfied voters tend to leave the AKP for its allies rather than for the opposition, and the same is true of the opposition’s voters. In part, this polarisation is driven by the media, with the government working not just through news channels but other less usual platforms like TV shows. <br /><br />Furthermore, the government has been very successful in eliminating serious threats. Erdogan has imprisoned some of his opponents and appears to be set to ban others from participating in politics thanks to a politicised judiciary. Finally, Erdogan has managed to institutionalise the party state by distributing resources and rent to his allies and supporters. Indeed, the party’s power can be ascertained from the fact that it has more than three times as many members as all other parties combined. All these advantages have been consolidated by the fact that the opposition has not learned its lesson, choosing a candidate less than two months before the elections and relying on the campaign process rather than grassroots work. <br /><br />As for where Turkey stands after the election, Akkoyunlu said that the silver linings are thin. Strongman politics and the party state are being entrenched in Turkey, and the presidential system will persist even if the opposition wins next time. With no incentive to return to parliamentary democracy, the system will only generate more strongman populist politics. At the same time, the CHP and IYIP face potential separation, and it is questionable whether the Kurds will continue to support the opposition alliance. Without them, the nationalists will have a difficult time in next year’s mayoral elections. Finally, there is the question of succession. Erdogan has failed to groom a successor as he cannot tolerate independent thinking, which will make any post-Erdogan transition more difficult. <br /><br />The third panelist, Dimitar Bechev further contributed to the analysis of what went wrong and spoke of what might come next. Erdogan, he said, is a skilful politician and a good campaigner who has worked his way from the street to the pinnacle of power. Kılıçdaroğlu may have had an appeal as a candidate lacking strongman ambitions, but he was disadvantaged by his minority status, his associations with secularism, and his continuing losing streak in elections. <br /><br />Bechev went on to say that the system is rigged in favour of the winner, with the media consistently favouring Erdogan and the opposition unable to reach swing voters. The opposition does not have the same access to resources as the AKP, which ramped up its welfare offerings, hiked up salaries in the public sector, and increased pensions. Erdogan has also promised to encourage the construction of houses through preferential loans, which has a special significance after the earthquake. Despite the shoddy infrastructure that led to many deaths, voters likely still think that the AKP is the most likely to rebuild their homes. <br /><br />Last of all, the opposition has a difficult task in uniting a number of ideological currents across society. Erdogan’s nationalist and conservative base make a perfect match, while the opposition needs to unite various sectors like secularists, democrats, Kurds, AKP defectors, and anyone in between. In this process, it is difficult not to alienate people by giving too much to other members in the same coalition. <br /><br />According to Bechev, there is some reason for mild optimism regarding Turkey’s economy. The naming of Mehmet Şimşek as finance minister may signal Turkey’s return to a more conventional policy on interest rates. Turkey is, after all, vulnerable to the external financial environment and dependent on financial inflows, which makes it more difficult for it to continue to pursue its economic heterodoxy. However, it is not clear whether things will change substantively given the upcoming municipal elections. <br /><br />The issue of succession, Bechev continued, is central. In the next five to ten years, Selçuk Bayraktar may have a good chance to succeed Erdogan, but he will have big shoes to fill: the current president is very good at connecting to ordinary people and has a brand that carries local elections. More sombrely, personalistic regimes tend to hollow out institutions and once Erdogan is gone, the country might unravel. <br /><br />In terms of foreign policy, Bechev expects a continuation of the status quo. Despite Erdogan’s anti-NATO rhetoric, the organisation will continue to be the major pillar of Turkey’s foreign policy. Sweden will also likely be admitted to the organisation. As for the Middle East, Erdogan is set to continue pursuing rapprochement with the Assad regime. He will likely renew his deals on refugees with the EU and will continue his piecemeal cooperation on energy and other areas of mutual interest between Turkey and Europe. As for the silver lining, things could have gone much worse: despite the predictions of some analysts, there has not been conflict with Greece or Cyprus. Also, Erdogan seems to have softened his rhetoric on the EU. <br /><br />Anastasakis asked one question of each panelist. He asked Karli what he expected the opposition to do, and whether it was doomed to stay at 48% forever. Karli noted that the opposition still manages to fight and that 48% is a high result considering the odds are stacked against it. However, the opposition must campaign for more than just elections. Parties must become less hierarchical, and they should not be afraid to propose a more left-leaning societal project. <br /><br />Anastasakis asked Akkoyunlu whether the election heralded the end of Kemalism in Turkey. Akkoyunlu responded that Ataturk is more respected than ever, and that even Erdogan has ceased to attack him. Indeed, the AKP invoked “Ghazi Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,” the title “Ghazi” giving a more religious tinge to a name traditionally associated with secularism. The government has also managed to absorb voices that might be construed as rabid, fanatical Kemalist and ultra-nationalist ones. These are convinced that it is Erdogan who is fighting the PKK and Gulenists and is standing up for the nation’s interest. For the AKP, Erdogan has become an Islamic Kemalist, with both men waging successful battles against the West. <br /><br />Finally, Anastasakis asked Bechev whether the issue of migration will continue to be central to relations with the European Union. Bechev responded that while migration will continue to be important, it will not be the only issue on the table. The refugee card is not as strong as some construe it to be, and the EU is able to fight back against Turkey effectively – with refugees often being caught in the middle. The EU remains Turkey’s most important export market and it will likely be involved in the country’s rebuilding following the earthquake.<div><br /><div>Ladislav Charouz (ESC Research Assistant)</div></div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-83345436973433547582023-05-29T13:57:00.001+01:002023-07-04T14:08:22.362+01:00 Reconciliation by stealth: How people talk about war crimes<p><span style="line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Candara, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTvDXcQDl_bCQc0kLTgEwIMqFhoFt5JDI3lO-u5oaZTXmfM0qRRlBYAallVOlai2yn2QhAwgdzU3vRrtutb_Uzjntk8q4TNJP-RD0G3sBakgITpw_VLk9SbMONihJUwRYrkBrSaRnkN0Zd51WrZ7124M9RLA5nIbrYVRZhtojmNOZwdTSSg3zjJiDJbFGK/s3210/Stealth%20cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1697" data-original-width="3210" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTvDXcQDl_bCQc0kLTgEwIMqFhoFt5JDI3lO-u5oaZTXmfM0qRRlBYAallVOlai2yn2QhAwgdzU3vRrtutb_Uzjntk8q4TNJP-RD0G3sBakgITpw_VLk9SbMONihJUwRYrkBrSaRnkN0Zd51WrZ7124M9RLA5nIbrYVRZhtojmNOZwdTSSg3zjJiDJbFGK/s320/Stealth%20cover.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On the 24th of May, Seesox welcomed Denisa Kostovicova (European Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science) to present her new book “Reconciliation by Stealth: How People Talk About War Crimes.” Marilena Anastasopoulou (Pembroke College, Oxford) chaired the meeting. The discussants were Jessie Barton Hronešová (University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; Ca’ Foscari University in Venice) and John Gledhill (Oxford Department of International Development).<br /><br />The new book, Kostovicova explained, is about what happens after mass atrocity. When do people start looking for justice? And is it possible to have reconciliation after conflict? Justice has traditionally been viewed as an emancipatory concept, promoting peace and reconciliation while strengthening democracy and the rule of law. It is often said that there is no peace without justice. <br /><br />Since the end of the Cold War, however, scholars have observed the negative effects of transitional justice. War-time trials, truth commissions, and other such initiatives have not always brought clear benefits to society. Scholars have shown how the pursuit of transitional justice can further divide societies, antagonise groups, and slow down democratisation. Often, suspects brought before the Hague are hailed as heroes at home. <br /><br />Kostovicova’s book takes a new look at the topic, asking: might there be something we are not noticing because we are looking only at the negatives? In her case study, she looks at the RECOM process in the Balkans, a civil society initiative advocating the founding of a Regional Commission for Establishing the Facts about War Crimes and other Serious Human Rights Violations in Yugoslavia from January 1991 to the end of 2001.<span><a name='more'></a></span>RECOM was special in several ways: It was a regional rather than a state commission; it was multi-ethnic rather than mono-ethnic; it had grass-roots support rather than being directed top-down; and it was more interested in fact-finding than in retribution (as the terms “truth” and reconciliation had been politicised, RECOM worked on concrete issues like the naming of victims). Throughout its existence, RECOM organised over 100 consultations with 6000 civil society members from all ethnic groups at the regional, national, and local levels level since 2006. Participants were asked how to bring about reconciliation, and the initiative resulted in the adoption of the 2011 draft Statute of the Regional Commission. <br /><br />Up until now, scholarly literature has mainly focussed on the failures of RECOM. Focussing on concrete, tangible outcomes, scholars have taken RECOM’s inability to establish a commission to be a sign of its failure. In so doing, they have neglected the valuable process of consultations. However, Kostovicova argues that RECOM can be construed as a success. <br /><br />Before the publication of Kostovicova’s monograph, no one had systematically investigated RECOM proceedings. This is despite the fact that RECOM has transcripts of all its consultations, with around four million words of data in naturally occurring divisions. This data gives an insight into the nature of inter-ethnic discussion about war crimes and opens up the possibility of treating reconciliation as a process. <br /><br />Kostovicova’s view is that one ought to look at reconciliation from a communicative action perspective. Using Habermas’ theory of communicative action and transitional justice, she says such a method of reconciliation would foreground deliberative virtues like reason, orientation towards a common good, respect, reciprocity, and so on. It thus holds the potential to reconstruct societies divided by conflict. There are also several gaps in existing literature. Scholars of other areas tend to avoid divisive subjects when discussing reconciliation and transitional justice scholars tend to approach deliberation descriptively and dyadically. <br /><br />What Reconciliation by Stealth contributes is the first empirical study of deliberation of war crimes and their redress, quantifying 1000 statements to code. The study combines a rigorous application and measurement of deliberation with extensive qualitative research and fieldwork. Furthermore, it investigates multi-ethnic deliberation in a divided region. <br /><br />Kostovicova highlighted multiple lessons. Firstly, the study provides evidence that inter-ethnic deliberation of war crimes and justice is feasible. Secondly, it identifies the role of ethnic identification and discourse in inter-ethnic deliberation: ethnically polarising issues increase the quality of deliberation and ethnic diversity tends to be conducive to higher deliberative quality. Thirdly, the study highlights the role of intra-ethnic divisions in the recognition of the ethnic Other; the dynamic of disagreement within groups helps to build solidarity across groups. <br /><br />As for broader takeaways, Kostovicova argued that we do not know much about the value of identity-talk in post-conflict contexts. People can talk about ethnicity without it becoming a discursive weapon, which provides an agenda for deliberative inter-ethnic contact. With regards to policy, deliberative problem-solving has the potential to promote transitional justice and peace. <br /><br />In her commentary, Barton Hronešová highlighted Kostovicova’s contributions and raised several questions. She praised the book’s timeliness, impressive disciplinary breadth, meticulous research, and innovative conceptual anchoring. She raised the book’s methodology as a particular strength thanks to its combining of interviews and focus groups with quantitative coding. She also noted that the book illustrates the helpfulness of respectful discussion, which has wider implications outside of war crime settings. The in-person climate of RECOM discussions tends to further empathy in a way that modern online spaces cannot replicate. <br /><br />Barton Hronešová asked about the role of silence and whether there were some terms that participants tended to avoid. She also asked whether it was possible to scale up the success of RECOM. Kostovicova responded that it would be difficult to make judgements about silences in the materials she investigated, but that she did gain insights into various patterns of interaction, for example with reference to gender, victimhood, and social group membership. These observations have wider implications for how different participants should be engaged. <br /><br />Gledhill also began by highlighting several strengths of Kostovicova’s book. He said the monograph asked well-constructed, clear, and ambitious questions. Furthermore, he praised its empirical contribution to a theory-oriented area. Finally, he underscored Kostovicova’s sophisticated but transparently explained methods, all of which help to answer different parts of the study. <br /><br />Gledhill raised the possibility that debate in a RECOM-like setting could, counterintuitively, provide another path towards reconciliation by building a certain kind of empathy. Similarly to Barton Hronešová, Gledhill asked whether the success of RECOM diffused into society more broadly and if this had implications for scaling up the project. Kostovicova answered that the mechanics of diffusion have not been researched enough. It is true that some vertical diffusion might happen when secondary elites like journalists are involved in similar projects. However, there is also horizontal diffusion that takes place when participants in the project tell their friends and neighbours about their experiences. <br /><br /> Ladislav Charouz (Research Assistant)<br /><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Candara, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-26166375177422737862023-03-13T18:09:00.002+00:002023-04-20T18:21:34.604+01:00Democracy promotion and safeguarding after accession: Does the EU matter?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNqkuXpJUrA3MFWTnkKXgU7zI0gezR4-_v25A4zPcJVG0QZErkfpW6f4Hlko6hPIJFbKqosySj-7gfAH-9W_DBYFn2P2M26ztHNbZLvvXqmbHTmNuTkXopHYnw0zkn16XSWJALMOS_VIHYrEUvqHtymEDWL4rvstFurD6mGoOYCl0RBuBwWYwnEM6wA/s960/lady-justice.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbNqkuXpJUrA3MFWTnkKXgU7zI0gezR4-_v25A4zPcJVG0QZErkfpW6f4Hlko6hPIJFbKqosySj-7gfAH-9W_DBYFn2P2M26ztHNbZLvvXqmbHTmNuTkXopHYnw0zkn16XSWJALMOS_VIHYrEUvqHtymEDWL4rvstFurD6mGoOYCl0RBuBwWYwnEM6wA/s320/lady-justice.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On the 7 March 2023, the European Studies Centre welcomed Eli Gateva (DPIR, Oxford) to present her paper on democracy promotion and safeguarding by the EU. The event was chaired by Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX), with Othon Anastasakis (St Antony’s College, Oxford) and Mihail Chiru (DPIR, Oxford) serving as discussants.<br /><br />Gateva’s paper speaks to a broader literature on the EU’s responses to democratic backsliding. Most academic research on the topic tends to focus on sanctions. However, Gateva’s article proposes a novel framework to study the EU’s impact after accession, analysing the post-accession trajectories of Romania and Bulgaria under the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism (CVM). Conceived as a short-term instrument to address several ‘outstanding issues’ in the areas of judicial reform and the fight against corruption, the mechanism is yet to be revoked. <br /><br />Gateva points out that despite the limited sanctioning power of the CVM, the trajectories of Bulgaria and Romania have diverged. Romania is traditionally seen as the success story of democratisation, while Bulgaria’s record is patchier. This challenges the received wisdom that EU interventions only matter before accession. The article argues that identifying and exploring the key mechanisms through which EU membership can empower and constrain domestic actors is critical to understanding the differentiated impact of EU democracy promotion and safeguarding. <br /><br />As Gateva explained during her presentation, Bulgaria and Romania joined the the EU in 2007. However, what set them apart from the countries that joined in 2004 was an additional safeguard clause known as the ‘super safeguard clause’ which allowed for the postponement of their accession by one year. Although the EU didn’t postpone their accession, it decided to establish to establish the CVM. The mechanism was envisaged to last last up to three years, but it is still in place. This raises the question: how successful has the EU been in influencing developments in the two countries?<span><a name='more'></a></span>The presenter contextualised the cases of Romania and Bulgaria within Eastern Europe. Viewed using the metric of the V-Dem Rule of Law Index, Romania had a relatively low starting point but has managed to chart a generally upward trajectory. This stands in contrast to Hungary and Poland which achieved high rankings, but have recorded significant deteriorations. Bulgaria, Gateva argued, has stayed out of the headlines despite worsening trends, partly because the changes in the country have been quite subtle. <br /><br />She stressed that, in order to understand the impact of the EU fully, we must investigate how EU membership changes domestic politics and policy-making. The EU, she argued, empowers actors in countries through two main groups of mechanisms: participation and resources. Empowerment through participation involves EU policymaking, EU leadership selection, and EU citizenship. Empowerment through resources involves funding, legitimation, and policies. At the same time, EU membership also constrains actors through monitoring, pressure, exclusion, and the withdrawal of resources. <br /><br />Over the years the Union has used all the above mechanisms to counter democratic backsliding. In Romania, the EU exerted pressure during the 2012 constitutional crisis, as well as over the 2017-19 reforms. The Union has also suspended funding for both countries. Moreover, some EU member states have repeatedly blocked Bulgaria and Romania from joining the passport-free Schengen area, even though both countries met criteria for Schengen membership. <br /><br />Gateva concluded that EU membership does not mark a point of no return for democratic transitions. Moreover, EU democracy promotion and safeguarding matters even after accession. Bulgaria’s and Romania’s post-accession experience has shaped EU enlargement policy and internal policies, as monitoring compliance using Copenhagen political criteria now applies to all EU member states. <br /><br />In his comments, Anastasakis praised Gateva’s conception of empowerment as an ambiguous concept, highlighting the idea of “differentiated empowerment.” One point on which he challenged Gateva’s paper was the portrayal of Romania as a success story and of Bulgaria as a failure; he pointed out that there was a big drop in Romania’s rule of law index during the years 2015-17, undermining an optimistic linear understanding of development in the country. He also made a point about the EU’s double standards, as anti-democratic developments in older member states often get overlooked. <br /><br />Chiru praised the rich corpus of data collected by Gateva, though he suggested that it should be explored more extensively in the paper. He also said that the apparent argument of the paper should be stated more clearly: that the EU has a positive influence only when working in tandem with local actors. He underlined the fact that the effects of the CVM are not always positive. It sometimes (for example in Romania’s case) empowers actors who use anticorruption rhetoric to entrench their power. He also suggested that Gateva look at Croatia – which was not bound by a CVM – to provide a counterfactual. <br /><br />Gateva clarified that both the Romanian and the Bulgarian case exhibit dynamism and nuances that are difficult to capture. The conventional view that Romania is a success story and Bulgaria a failure does not stand up to scrutiny. Furthermore, rooting out corruption is a very high bar that a number of non-Eastern European countries have been similarly unable to clear. Nevertheless, she maintained that Bulgaria’s democratic backsliding is much more elusive than in other Eastern European countries and is not fully captured by democracy indices. . <br /><br />In the Q&A, attendees asked about concrete parts of Gateva’s argument. One participant asked whether the EU could be compared to the IMF, in that it is increasingly turning towards financial incentives and punishments. Gateva replied that the Commission’s main priority is still framed within the goal of cooperative dialogue; the EU does not want to alienate countries. She also added that some of the IMF’s goals were simpler to achieve than the EU’s, which involve complex matters like reforming the judiciary. <br /><br />In response to a question raised by Anastasakis about double standards, Gateva noted that democratic deficiencies and corruption are not confined to Eastern Europe. After all, Italy, Cyprus, Malta, Greece, and even Austria have had a range of corruption scandals, not to mention the UK and its laundering of money for various oligarchs. She argued that the thinking on the CVM has changed for the better. All member states, and not just candidate countries, are moving towards being evaluated against European standards.<div><br /></div><div>Ladislav Charouz (Research Assistant)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-25363674012683400332023-02-27T15:39:00.006+00:002023-03-20T15:51:49.481+00:00Old Stories in new ways: Using the TV documentary form to revisit national history<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4cEFhRoO7jzh-YmEXW9D_70AeF38HuGbk_xdgaItHGCzzqfe4brHrX6YwAwYKEZ-sLdMfdSu9443h3u7p1JbGl3G1Mdm3M7yBlvhO_vktGP1rmNEa_6Z1S7nkBnqy5B41R7BkM5yajAQpLxDeVHdsYo1KbnaEQYzO1x9p_r1nCj6nmOQNNk4R3-ihw/s1422/Stathis%20talk%20image.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="783" data-original-width="1422" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij4cEFhRoO7jzh-YmEXW9D_70AeF38HuGbk_xdgaItHGCzzqfe4brHrX6YwAwYKEZ-sLdMfdSu9443h3u7p1JbGl3G1Mdm3M7yBlvhO_vktGP1rmNEa_6Z1S7nkBnqy5B41R7BkM5yajAQpLxDeVHdsYo1KbnaEQYzO1x9p_r1nCj6nmOQNNk4R3-ihw/s320/Stathis%20talk%20image.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>On 22 February 2023, the European Studies Centre welcomed Stathis Kalyvas (All Souls College) to talk about his TV documentary series “Disasters & Triumphs.” The talk, entitled “Old Stories in New Ways: Using the TV documentary form to revisit national history,” was chaired by Marilena Anastasopoulou (Pembroke College).<br /><br />Kalyvas began his presentation by outlining a widespread view of Modern Greek history according to which the country is frequently depicted as an unworthy successor to a great ancient civilisation, and its modern trajectory is viewed as stumbling from one disaster to another. Unhappy with this traditional account, Kalyvas conceived the idea for his 2014 book of moving away from this pessimistic view of modern Greece. His goals for a TV documentary series were threefold: to build on the thesis of his book; to do so in a research-based way; and yet to do so in an accessible and attractive fashion.<br /><br />Such an endeavour naturally poses many challenges. National histories follow powerful conventions and scripts that are difficult to change, as people are highly attached to them. However, such stories can be frequently both deceptive and dysfunctional. Furthermore, public history has to contend with a world of social media that often dumbs down and polarises debates.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Following a brief discussion of the theory behind documentary film-making, Kalyvas expounded on the process itself. First among the tasks was turning abstract concepts into images. Places and buildings, as well as art and moving images, would have to be used to represent the argument. The bicentenary of Greece’s independence helped this process, imbuing them with special significance.<br /><br />Secondly, it was necessary to devise an appropriate language for talking about modern Greece. When asked what modern Greece is, the conventional response is “a modern version of ancient Greece.” Part of Kalyvas’s task was to move away from this misleading view by introducing a realistic, yet more optimistic take on the country’s contemporary history. Furthermore, the documentary avoids cliches as well as provocations, inserting social science into the debate. <br /><br />Thirdly, Kalyvas talked about how the documentary was structured. The series has seven episodes, each disaggregated into four parts. These four parts form the narrative core of the argument: a disaster, a flashback to the origins of the disaster which were embedded in a highly ambitious project, the path that led to the disaster, and how success was wrested from the jaws of disaster. Put more simply, the documentary is a story of seven major projects followed by seven disasters, each in turn succeeded by seven rebounds. These collectively and sequentially produced the Greece of today.<br /><br />The seven episodes tell the story of the following events: <br /><br />1. The War of Independence leading to military defeats and followed by independence being achieved despite these defeats. <br /><br />2. State- and Nation-building, an arc that began from failed state and led to a stinging military defeat in 1897. Nevertheless, both processes proved much more successful than initially acknowledged. <br /><br />3. The expansion of Greece which led to both debacle in Asia Minor and a highly successful integration of Anatolian Greeks. <br /><br />4. Institutional modernisation during the interwar period, culminating in Civil War but also in a remarkable reconstruction immediately afterwards. <br /><br />5. Economic modernisation followed by dictatorship, which in turn gave way to the emergence of a new democratic regime. <br /><br />6. Democratisation gave way to populism, but produced long-term democratic consolidation. <br /><br />7. European economic integration begetting crisis, with the final resolution of this episode still open.<br /><br />The seven episodes also convey seven underlying stories: the idea of Greece as a nation state; the process of state and nation building; the contradictions of nationalism in a post-imperial age; the three interwar political experiments of democratic capitalism, fascism, and communism; the great escape from economic underdevelopment; the democratic revolution of 1974; and the trading of economic sovereignty for integration into the European Union.<br /><br />Kalyvas described the creative process behind the documentary. His book on modern Greece was used as a starting point, and many interviewees in the documentary had already been cited in it. He also shared some experiences from the process of film-making. The match with Anemon Production Company was a happy one, though the pandemic did make their working conditions much more difficult. Nevertheless, the pandemic also meant that many scenes could be filmed in the centre of an empty Athens, and that all the work could be done at once rather than happening in short bursts.<br /><br />Finally, Kalyvas talked about the documentary’s reception and his next steps. He noted that the cycle was shown during primetime and received very limited backlash. He posited that the explanation might be his being an “equal opportunity offender.” Indeed, the documentary was called a “history of traitors” by some on the far-right and “a pitch for international capitalism” by some on the far-left. However, the overall reception was very positive. The most natural next step would be to produce an English version of the documentary, but this of course entails changing the narrative to the needs of an international audience.<br /><br />In the question-and-answer session, Kalyvas discussed some of the practical and theoretical challenges of filming a documentary. He defended his use of the ambitious projects-disasters-triumphs structure as a helpful narrative device. He also highlighted Greece’s special significance as a case study: it has been a “very early late moderniser.” As one of the earliest new nation states in Europe, Greece was the site of the first institutionalised population transfer, and democratisation and modernisation occurred there before they were undertaken in the post-colonial world.<br /><br />The connection often made between ancient Greece and modern Greece, Kalyvas argued, is a double-edged sword. The Greeks, of course, used it to win external support during times of crisis, so much so that others accused them of being impostors taking advantage of their history. On the other hand, Modern Greece will always fall short of its glorious ancient predecessor, which inevitably begets an understanding of modern Greece as a failure. Kalyvas argued that his goal was to show why the study of modern Greek history offers uniquely valuable insights, irrespective of the country’s connection to its ancient past.<div><br /></div><div>Ladislav Charouz (SEESOX Research Assistant)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-49431407519757044942023-02-22T16:16:00.007+00:002023-04-24T11:33:47.381+01:00Why are Albanians coming to the UK? Push and pull factors<p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoj1fwZvmIaENrVkTAOEdCr1U7aLtsy9WWddqOM2lJ7Ulo1Ss0cEVwn7ncY-vCJ2yitibaNqHLD1seLPaPR42HPSwIhCU3u0U0kuEKYpbSENBQVWecBrpdqUrnwpE6EuG3x4LCKi4HI9RinhHXwpmI70XoR4t_vpiBYVJagfzMHCKH-RYtqospJ6RdSA/s3999/Albania-UK%20Push%20Pull2.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2249" data-original-width="3999" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoj1fwZvmIaENrVkTAOEdCr1U7aLtsy9WWddqOM2lJ7Ulo1Ss0cEVwn7ncY-vCJ2yitibaNqHLD1seLPaPR42HPSwIhCU3u0U0kuEKYpbSENBQVWecBrpdqUrnwpE6EuG3x4LCKi4HI9RinhHXwpmI70XoR4t_vpiBYVJagfzMHCKH-RYtqospJ6RdSA/s320/Albania-UK%20Push%20Pull2.png" width="320" /></a></div>SEESOX organised a panel discussion on the 8th of February 2023 entitled “Why are Albanians coming to the UK? Push and pull factors.” The meeting was chaired by Eli Gateva (St Antony’s College, Oxford), and featured Andi Hoxhaj (University College, London), Peter Walsh (The Migration Observatory, Oxford), and Fabian Zhilla (Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime).<br /><br />Andi Hoxhaj began the discussion with a broad historical and sociological introduction. Albania’s history of mass migration began in the 15th century, when the Ottoman invasion caused a quarter of Albania’s population to migrate to the Dalmatian coast, Greece, and Italy. Another migration wave followed in the 19th century, with large diaspora communities established in Athens, Bucharest, Cairo, Istanbul, and Sophia. This was followed in the 20th century by migration to more distant countries, such as the US, Argentina, and Australia. In the 1940s, around 60,000 Albanians moved to the US. <br /><br />The communist regime in Albania (1945-1990) put a stop to migration, making it an offense punishable by imprisonment. Due to poverty, unemployment, and political, legal, and economic instability, the first wave of post-communist migration happened in 1990-1992. 600,000 Albanians migrated to Greece, and another 500,000 moved to Italy during the 1990s. A second wave of Albanian migration followed in 1997-1999, when the growth of Albania’s economy – much of it financed through pyramid schemes – came to a grinding halt. The total damage to the country’s GDP was estimated at 45-52%. The economic downturn led to a rise in organised crime networks and violent deaths. In addition, one million ethnic Albanians fled to Albania in 1998-1999 due to Serbia’s war in Kosovo.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Four main factors have been driving migration since 2000, chief among them Albania’s economy. Most studies suggest the average monthly wage is less than £221, causing 83% of Albanians to want to leave the country. Another important push factor driving Albanian migration is the weak rule of law and the country’s limited recognition of property rights. Thirdly, Albanians are fleeing cronyism and nepotism, and fourthly, there is little faith in Albania’s accession to the EU.<br /><br />Numerous other problems have arisen more recently. 32,000 Albanians were left homeless as a result of an earthquake in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic also had a significant impact, pushing 23% of the population into poverty. Finally, inflation is soaring, driving up food prices and the cost of living – the Albanian Institute of Statistics (INSAT) and the World Bank reported that Albanians spent approximately 41% of their wages on food in 2021, but for 2022/23 the forecast is that Albanians will spend between 55 and 60% of their income on food. <br /><br />The UK is the third largest recipient of Albanian migrants in Europe, with a population of about 48,000; however, at the UK parliamentary hearing on “<a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/laws/news/2022/dec/dr-hoxhaj-gives-evidence-home-affairs-select-committee-hearing-albania">Migration and Asylum: Albania</a>” it was claimed that this number is significantly higher at 140,000. Part of the UK’s attractiveness to Albanian migrants is that, as third country nationals, they are not allowed to work in the EU and can only visit the Schengen area for a maximum of three months. Furthermore, the UK has a great need of low-skilled jobs, and the cost of small boat travel to the UK is relatively low. <br /><br />Finally, Hoxhaj outlined some of the long-term impacts of migration: 43% of Albania’s population is currently living abroad, and remittances were estimated to make up between 11.7% and 15% of the country’s GDP between 2008 and 2019; they essentially fund Albania’s welfare system. An increasing number of Albanian students have been studying abroad, and 92% of them do not return after graduating. Hoxhaj suggested that the solution was to be found in a new social contract allowing citizens to participate in political and economic affairs and levelling up economic and social diversification beyond Tirana and the southern coast. <br /><br />In his presentation, Peter Walsh looked at the facts of irregular migration from the UK side. In the first nine months of 2022, 13,000 Albanians claimed asylum in the UK, a number almost three times higher than for the whole of 2021. Crucially, the number of asylum applications by all nationalities only increased by about 10%, indicating that the tripling of Albanian immigrants is a country-specific phenomenon. <br /><br />90% of these 13,000 migrants arrived by small boats, 56% of them men between the ages of 18 and 29, and 81% men under the age of 50. Albanians made up one third of small boat arrivals in the first three quarters of 2022. Nevertheless, the success rate for Albanian men in receiving asylum is only about 10%, whereas for women, it is 90%. This disproportion suggests that many of these young men may have migrated for economic and family reasons. <br /><br />To date, the UK has had four main responses to migration from Albania. The first was announced in the August of 2022, and consists of a fast-track removal scheme. Agreement was also reached with Albania to base Albanian police in Dover. This measure has been undermined by the fact that, by law, the UK cannot remove asylum-seekers, and the government has confirmed it will not do so, while asylum-seekers make up 90% of all Albanian migrants arriving by boat. Furthermore, only two Albanian officials were stationed in Dover, and only for a short time. <br /><br />A second response has been to enhance bilateral cooperation between the UK and Albania. The two countries have pledged to work together to combat illegal immigration and trafficking, creating a taskforce to manage these matters. The UK also promised to support Albania’s government in managing reintegration services. Thirdly, and linked to the second, the UK government is planning to change how it processes claims made by Albanians with a new unit staffed by 400 specialists. Finally, the UK is developing country guidance for asylum decision-makers to facilitate their work. <br /><br />The third presenter, Fabian Zhilla, turned to the nexus between organised crime and undocumented migration, and particularly the issue of cannabis farms. There is much concern, especially with the involvement of young men, some of whom are recruited directly in Albania, while others are recruited in the UK after encountering bureaucratic barriers and failing public services. Even those who arrive on legitimate visas can be recruited by organised crime networks, as the money and benefits to be gained from their participation in the business come at a very low effective cost. <br /><br />With regard to cannabis, Albania is considered an important origin country for cannabis growing in Europe. Although much of the country’s out-door cannabis farms were eradicated by 2016, the know-how was exported to countries of the Benelux, as well as Spain and the UK. Through contact with other crime networks, Albanian crime groups abroad have broken into indoor cannabis farming, in which they have been somewhat successful. <br /><br />There are multiple problems related to organised crime around the sale of cannabis. Firstly, youth participation in the trade disrupts the social fabric of immigrant groups, exposing them to criminal activities. Secondly, considering that indoor cannabis growth operates more as a network rather than a criminal organisation-based structure, this has made it easier for young men to rapidly become independent and own their own cannabis farms. Thirdly, the recruitment process for young men engaged in the cannabis trade in the UK is mainly led by young men themselves, making this system very effective. <br /><br />In the Q&A, the panellists responded to questions on a number of topics. Hoxhaj discussed some of the problems leading to migration from Albania, for example the fact that local governments do not participate much in addressing local issues and poverty, nor do they engage with the central government to launch joint initiatives to address the issues at local level that contribute to the rise in migration. He also discussed some of the UK’s responses. On the one hand, the UK has given the green light to spending more money on the regions from which many Albanians emigrate to the UK. On the other hand, UK politicians have securitised the issue, which has led to a de-emphasis on reintegrating returned migrants and thus prevent them from becoming part of international crime networks. <br /><br />Walsh answered some questions on the practical aspects of processing asylum-seekers. Crucially, there is no safe and legal route to come to the UK for the specific purpose of claiming asylum; however, one has to be in the UK in order to claim asylum. Migrants on boats are typically apprehended in British waters, after which they are held at facilities (and increasingly detention centres) for two days while their claims are being processed. After the initial information is collected, they are transferred to dispersal accommodation, where they usually stay for around two years; in practice, 35% wait longer than 3 years for an initial asylum decision. This process, Walsh argued, has negative impacts upon integration. Asylum-seekers are not allowed to work while their claims are being processed, which may lead some to seek employment illegally. Furthermore, despite the length of this process, 90% of people whose claims are denied are not returned. <br /><br />Zhilla answered some more concrete questions on the cannabis trade. The market in the UK is £2 billion, which makes this market very attractive. Social media plays a particularly important role in recruiting Albanian young men to this illegal trade. He also discussed the inconsistency of the UK visa regime and the complexity of its various rules. These factors, he argued, convince people that it is simply easier to immigrate illegally. <p></p><div>Ladislav Charouz (ESC Research Assistant)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-27944163304036761062022-12-19T13:02:00.002+00:002022-12-21T14:27:34.334+00:00Greek diaspora in times of crises and uncertainty: How do crises affect Greek diaspora-homeland relations?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9oyNzHifRZzQE3_WyvG3UKyCyU1MBuAsjEKsRMsNRocVlZLtuvWTGhGGhBWcMDwVibj0QptLYD_ArZ2ZJT96dPNIVCIWs_rDSXpS4qFdPqBPjc9KjBALnqrJ303E9DgLWtE8sfCBV7gHlg4UVss7YDAuFPjuhNoNpwvCF5zXpCdRrvo6SF_2lMVd6Vw/s675/athens%20event.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="675" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9oyNzHifRZzQE3_WyvG3UKyCyU1MBuAsjEKsRMsNRocVlZLtuvWTGhGGhBWcMDwVibj0QptLYD_ArZ2ZJT96dPNIVCIWs_rDSXpS4qFdPqBPjc9KjBALnqrJ303E9DgLWtE8sfCBV7gHlg4UVss7YDAuFPjuhNoNpwvCF5zXpCdRrvo6SF_2lMVd6Vw/w400-h235/athens%20event.JPG" width="400" /></a></div><p></p>On December 6, 2022, the American College of Greece organized a panel discussion at the ACG Events Hall on the occasion of the SEESOX publication of the edited volume <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-97443-5">Diaspora engagement in times of severe economic crisis: Greece and beyond</a>. The book's co-authors, Dr. Othon Anastasakis, Director of European Studies Centre & SEESOX Principal Investigator of the Greek Diaspora Project at the University of Oxford, and Dr. Manolis Pratsinakis, Assistant Professor in Social Geography, Harokopio University and Research Affiliate, COMPAS, University of Oxford, presented their University of Oxford Greek Diaspora Project's case studies on how crises and global uncertainties affect contemporary Greek diaspora-homeland relations. Dr. Panos Vlachopoulos, Executive Dean at Deree – The American College of Greece, and Katerina Sokou, Theodore Couloumbis Research Fellow on "Greek-American Relations" at ELIAMEP, rounded off the panelists. Dr. David G. Horner, President of The American College of Greece, gave the opening remarks. The event was co-organized by the ACG Institute for Hellenic Culture and the Liberal Arts (IHCLA) and ACG Institute of Global Affairs (IGA). Dr. Eirini Karamouzi, IHCLA Fellow was the convenor of the event. <br /><br />The panelists addressed the state of Greece's relations with its diaspora as these have evolved during the recent years of consecutive crises and uncertainty. They discussed the role and significance of Hellenism abroad by touching upon the following issues: the significance of diasporic institutions, crises-driven migration and diasporic mobility, diasporic solidarity with the motherland, the role of diasporic networks and associations in the era of technological communication.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Dr. Anastasakis presented how the crisis affected diasporic engagement with the homeland, as well as diasporic identities, attitudes and transnational mobilization. Some critical findings proved disappointment by the diaspora with homeland reality and a lack of trust in the system. Yet is there a post-crisis new mode of engagement and spaces of interaction? The findings show that social media can be a vital tool to empower and engage younger dynamic generations with the homeland. <br /><br />Dr. Malonis Pratsinakis took the floor to present the research methodology utilized in the book to answer the following question: What was Greece's emigration outflow during the economic crisis? Dr. Pratsinakis observed that the economic crisis was crucial in reshaping broader socioeconomic dynamics that allowed or triggered Greek emigrants' decision to leave the homeland. Most emigrants were transnationals and 'Eurostars' getting ahead in life, older career-oriented professionals and necessity-driven migrants. He stated: "By altering everyday discourse on emigration and loosening up social constraints towards long-distance mobility, the crisis made emigration an option to be widely considered. At the same time, the presence of new migrants abroad induced and facilitated further migration through the working of transnational networks in a self-feeding process." <br /><br />Katerina Sokou pointed out that the Greek diaspora in the United States is a resource for Greece since it has been historically united in its support of the homeland. She mentioned that it is more diverse compared to other diaspora communities worldwide. Yet the US diaspora was challenged on how to respond during the Greek economic crisis. Philanthropic organizations and nonprofit institutions, such as the Hellenic Initiative, stepped up to the challenge and provided entrepreneurship support to drive investments in Greece. <br /><br />Dr. Panos Vlachopoulos described the findings of his three-year research project (2020-2023), funded by the Hellenic Foundation for Research & Innovation (H.F.R.I.), which focused on the youth of new Greek migrant families in Australia who emigrated during the financial crisis. The purpose of this study was to make concrete teaching proposals concerning Greek language education abroad based on ethnographic research findings. The findings show that Greek is mainly present in the domain of family and school lessons and that traditional enablers such as family and schools still play a determining role in relation to the cultivation and development of practices that relate to the Greek language. Although English holds a dominating position, some children make conscious efforts to engage themselves for their own personal purposes in Greek. <br /><br />The event closed with a lively discussion regarding the facilitation of diasporic vote and transnational diaspora identities. The book's co-authors concluded that they have opened new spaces for work and are looking forward to broadening their research to focus on the US diaspora and younger generation, as well as Germany, which had the largest influx of Greek emigrants during the economic crisis. <br /><br />Maria-Anna Niforos (The American College of Greece)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-87776327703578994932022-12-07T13:52:00.004+00:002022-12-07T13:52:59.243+00:00Ukraine, Europe and the Future of World Order<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvOs3STnicAKXYKl39NTHk1pd2inqUDZJsCvhq93ir9RgKu9UMnLpFPc1C583HyUNVeWNZdadtVvZ5zgfdnckXNM5J6Kiu45qwzyIIHThm2ZqLzavGNAPI9UHIyGwW6kKEcsmQHItxnYhX9eA7I9s2W6BXiZzjzLoCftNqNcl9_f2xDD0VZlwJRgKoaQ/s1280/ukraine-ga3be21f43_1280.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvOs3STnicAKXYKl39NTHk1pd2inqUDZJsCvhq93ir9RgKu9UMnLpFPc1C583HyUNVeWNZdadtVvZ5zgfdnckXNM5J6Kiu45qwzyIIHThm2ZqLzavGNAPI9UHIyGwW6kKEcsmQHItxnYhX9eA7I9s2W6BXiZzjzLoCftNqNcl9_f2xDD0VZlwJRgKoaQ/s320/ukraine-ga3be21f43_1280.png" width="320" /></a></div>On 19 November, as part of a conference on <i>War and the future of Ukraine</i>, there was a panel discussion on <i>Ukraine, Europe and the Future of World Order</i>. Timothy Garton Ash (St Antony's College, Oxford) chaired. Kateryna Zarembo (New Europe Center, Kyiv), Roy Allison (St Antony's College, Oxford) and Jonathan Holslag (Free University of Brussels) spoke.<div><br />Kateryna Zarembo spoke mainly about EU/Ukraine: EU normative positions, hierarchy, and the EU “you must do your homework” mantra. <br /><br />Roy Allison spoke of Russia’s war of choice against Ukraine and its people. This went directly against the UN Charter, globally accepted principles, sovereignty, and the world and European security order. This explained the extraordinary level of support for Ukraine. There were many unanswered questions about the future, and the wider reaction to Russian revisionism and revanchism. <br /><br />Jonathan Holslag examined the role of China: how would Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect Chinese thinking about and planning for policy towards Taiwan.<br /><br />In discussion there were many points about the NATO role. There was mainly a coalition of the willing under the broad NATO umbrella/consensus. NATO was built on interests, but above all on VALUES: this was strength. </div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.rees.ox.ac.uk/event/save-the-date-ukraine-conference" target="_blank">Conference website</a></div><div><br /></div><div>David Madden (Chair, SEESOX Steering Committee)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-41081249904534950272022-12-01T13:03:00.004+00:002022-12-19T13:06:44.378+00:00Turkey: After Erdoğan?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyUzIpOstiIItnqDYgrcdJbF1Y_ZXMXqBnarP9acc0WOhEopYGPchUpvnFlqZy3d4h60gFTpA2yjts95gJtvDwkZdfOMulva6fRVWsHhwblRNGfoSmYTFssA6iZNLfYQg4-457S5fOzq5cpDQmCtfvUkbEG9_aIaCLS_yn13U7HJKJxNbUpsm8AQu12g/s1280/nazar-amulet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyUzIpOstiIItnqDYgrcdJbF1Y_ZXMXqBnarP9acc0WOhEopYGPchUpvnFlqZy3d4h60gFTpA2yjts95gJtvDwkZdfOMulva6fRVWsHhwblRNGfoSmYTFssA6iZNLfYQg4-457S5fOzq5cpDQmCtfvUkbEG9_aIaCLS_yn13U7HJKJxNbUpsm8AQu12g/s320/nazar-amulet.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On 23 November 2022 SESSOX held a panel called “Turkey: After Erdoğan?” that focused on what awaits Turkey if Erdoğan is voted out of power in the coming presidential and parliamentary elections, which will be held no later than June 2023. The event was chaired by Dimitar Bechev (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies) and the speakers were Sinan Ciddi (Marine Corps University) and William Park (King's College London). <br /><br />Sinan Ciddi started by explaining why it is important to ask this question now and provided the background to the elections. He stated that this is the third time that President Erdoğan is running for presidency but his abilities to get re-elected are at its lowest. This is because of the growing resentment and anger among Turkish citizens due to exceptionally high inflation rates (officially 85%, but 150-160% according to non-governmental sources) and the devaluation of the Turkish lira against the USD and the Euro. Turkish society is also highly polarized, and the current government does not seem positioned or inclined to set the country back onto an even political and economic keel. Ciddi commented that the country has also become an isolated and distrusted country among its traditional partners and allies. Developments such as the negotiations with regards to the proposed NATO-accession of Finland and Sweden and the acquiring of Russian military and intelligence technologies compound the country’s international reputation, which in turn impacts the country’s economy. He then highlighted the erosion of the judiciary system, the lack of rule of law and the difficulty of governability with the presidential system. Against this background, he suggested that the requirement of achieving 50+1% of votes – a system that President Erdoğan designed himself - might be a challenge for him in these elections although he is re-gaining some support that he has lost.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Ciddi then moved on to describe who stands to challenge him. He described the Nation Alliance, which is composed of six parties in the Turkish Parliament apart from the governing AKP and the nationalist MHP. He argued that, despite the expectations for the Nation Alliance to come up with a strong program and nominate a credible and charismatic candidate, they have not yet done that and that we know very little about what they stand for. What they have promised so far is to transform the system back into a parliamentary system, to re-institute the rule of law, and to re-establish ties with Turkey’s former allies and partners, especially the US and the EU. However, Ciddi believes that the programs, publications and platforms being rolled out need to be more concrete and should be expressed louder. He then discussed the strengths and weaknesses of different candidate nominees and stated that Ekrem Imamoğlu stands a greater chance to win compared to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Mansur Yavaş.<br /><br />William Park shared two observations. The first one was that the system sometimes shapes the way we offer narratives about the system. In other words, Erdoğan seems relatively less popular within the presidential election system which he has devised. However, the 30-40% rating at the polls would not look bad in some other electoral systems; it might have been enough, for instance, to form a government in the UK elections. He also pointed out that there is a group in the Turkish society that is significantly benefitting economically from his rule. Therefore, he drew attention to the negativity surrounding Erdoğan.<br /><br />His second observation was that, apart from putting forward a detailed policy proposal, the real reason why the AKP won in 2002 was because the previous parties have discredited themselves by inducing or ruling over an economic collapse in Turkey. The only message the AKP needed to convey at the time was that they had nothing to do with the crises and that they are coming up with something new. Parks asked if we can translate this dynamic into now and say that the Nation Alliance is also trying to display themselves as ‘something other than the current government’. That might be why, he suggested, that they are not announcing a more concrete policy proposal but are focusing on differentiating themselves from the government. Moreover, he argued that if Imamoğlu becomes the candidate he might try to widen the electoral base and appeal more to the Kurdish voters. However, with the very nationalist İyi Parti in the alliance, that might cause a fragmentation within the alliance. He argued that this might be one explanation as to why they have not announced the candidate yet.<br /><br />The Q&A section explored the extent of the use of religion to gain support for the election, what the foreign policy approaches will and should look like after the election in either scenario, whether an economic collapse should be expected, and if so before or after the elections, and Erdoğan’s power within his own political circle. Ciddi responded by saying that in either case, Turkey would need to stop threatening war with Greece and Cyprus, and put forward a persuasive legal case to solve the issue on the Mediterranean. It would also need to dispossess the S-400 missile system in order to establish seemingly good relations with the NATO and the US. About the economy, he suggested that negotiations would need to be made with the IMF and the interest rates should be raised, and he again drew attention to the need for the Nation Alliance to express their economic proposal more clearly.<div><br /><div>Asli Tore (ESC and SEESOX Research Assistant) <br /><br /> </div></div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-19634031752310301582022-11-21T13:06:00.000+00:002022-12-19T13:14:38.275+00:00Globalizing the Greek-Turkish 1922: Displacements, population movements and the coming of the national state<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrzLpcXV2Cv4MEI5jkt0EAGNVm0V9VNdxnWa_liYweStNbihtbRkeqL6EqsBHtr7pYKGJrEgas0Ahrt158N_NzEPAbmlk4Fqu1o1CSA4Qnf-7MdKujhQGsydkcC2SjPPdQCNd9bTZva7NeajQDRFVHCc3VFBrFHzyMzt9KXW_1xaFKS6sAKZrXd-ACQ/s1250/global%201922%203.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="975" data-original-width="1250" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHrzLpcXV2Cv4MEI5jkt0EAGNVm0V9VNdxnWa_liYweStNbihtbRkeqL6EqsBHtr7pYKGJrEgas0Ahrt158N_NzEPAbmlk4Fqu1o1CSA4Qnf-7MdKujhQGsydkcC2SjPPdQCNd9bTZva7NeajQDRFVHCc3VFBrFHzyMzt9KXW_1xaFKS6sAKZrXd-ACQ/s320/global%201922%203.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>On 15 November 2022, the European Studies Centre, in cooperation with SEESOX, hosted an event marking the centenary of the conclusion of the Greek-Turkish War in Asia Minor. Titled Globalizing the Greek-Turkish 1922: displacements, population movements and the coming of the national state, the discussion was chaired by Faisal Devji (St Antony’s College). The speakers were Georgios Giannakopoulos (City University, London), (University of Leeds), and Marilena Anastasopoulou (Pembroke College, Oxford). <br /><br />Giannakopoulos’ presentation focussed on the population exchanges between Greece and Turkey in the aftermath of the Greek-Turkish War. His guiding question was whether the Greek expansionist project was an effort to protect Greek populations, or an imperialist venture. The motivations behind the post-war settlement were a “unique blend” of imperialist, nationalist, and internationalist imageries, with various figures representing different faces of the endeavour: Nansen as the humanitarian, Curzon as the imperialist, and Venizelos as the nationalist. <br /><br />At the same time, he situated the developments in Greece and Turkey within a broader international context. The “Global 1922,” he pointed out, included a number of state-forming events, such as Egypt’s declaration of independence, the creation of an Irish Free State, and the official establishment of the USSR. The infamous March on Rome also happened in the same year. According to Western commentators like Toynbee, disquiet in Asia Minor threatened the West with a new kind of “Moral Balkanisation.” However, the presenter argued that this global perspective challenges myths of Western homogeneity. <br /><br />Giannakopoulos concluded that the Treaty of Lausanne was not a departure from previous treaties but the logical conclusion of the politics of territoriality. Lausanne, he said, proposed 19th century solutions to 20th century problems, but would simultaneously become a template for resolving minority issues in the future. As Frank would detail in his presentation, authoritarian countries such as Germany, Italy, and the USSR drew inspiration from Greece and Turkey, though they did not study Lausanne closely as a legal precedent.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Frank began his presentation by discussing the complete change in atmosphere that led to the treaty’s signing. The idea Nansen had championed of a population exchange had seemed dead in the water but, in just over two months, an agreement had been reached. Its journey from a distant prospect to its enshrinement at Lausanne could be attributed to the fact that all parties saw advantages in securing a deal. Furthermore, it was hard to get agreement on anything else. Nevertheless, the Treaty of Lausanne met with criticism from all sides, with Curzon declaring he “detested having anything to do with it.” <br /><br />The focus of Frank’s presentation was on how the assessment of Lausanne shifted over the 1920s from condemnation through admiration to emulation. This shift was occasioned by three considerations. Firstly, Greece and Turkey achieved radical transformation following the resettlement. Both of the states consolidated their territory and pursued their own paths towards modernisation. The League of Nations was heavily involved in the modernisation of Greece, while Turkey impressed the Western world with its transformation into a modern secular state and “civilised power”. <br /><br />This led to a second development: diplomatic transformation. Following the return of Venizelos to power, Greece and Turkey signed the Ankara Agreements, which confirmed the completion of resettlement by liquidating the commission responsible for its implementation. The détente between these two countries led to the 1933 Treaty of Friendship and the signing of the Balkan Entente in 1934, and enabled Turkey to join the League of Nations. Finally, Turkey’s and Greece’s transformation stood in marked contrast to growing concerns over minorities in the rest of Europe. The Near East began to be held up as a success story in the context of turmoil in the rest of Europe and, indeed, the most egregious abuses of minority rights happened in countries not covered by the League’s minority protections, such as Italy. <br /><br />Finally, Anastasopoulou presented her research on Asia Minor refugee memory in Greece. Her guiding questions were: how have memories of the 1922-24 forced displacement changed over time from one generation to the next? And how do people with these memories and identities think about subsequent migration? <br /><br />She argued that memory identity is constructed, shaped, and reshaped, passing through different stages of trauma across generations: from silence to latency, and ultimately to reawakening. As for how 1922-24 refugees and their descendants view subsequent migration, the presenter uncovered a number of noteworthy trends. Firstly, people tend to construct hierarchies of acceptability based on binary distinctions, such as the perceived difference between “migrants” and “refugees”. Furthermore, shared characteristics like religion play a key role in the rejection or acceptance of migrants. The problem is also complicated by volatility and contradictions, with numerous respondents holding conflicting feelings. <br /><br />Anastasopoulou noted that reactions to subsequent migration have a geographical component. The inhabitants of Lesvos are traditional gate-openers, while Central Macedonians act as gatekeepers, and Athenians tend to hold more pragmatic views. Coupled with this geographical distinction are generational differences: while modern refugees prompt historical reflections on the side of the first generation of migrants, the fourth generation is more forward-looking. <br /><br />Opening the question-and-answer session, Devji shared his own expertise regarding South Asia, pointing out the paradox of heterogeneous empires like the UK encouraging homogeneity within the Middle East. As Frank had noted, the British simply had no interest in minority protection, with their own model favouring political and cultural assimilation over separation. He also brought up the plurality of models that could have served as an alternative to Lausanne: many Muslim commentators, for example, distrusted nation states, and some saw the USSR as representing a non-nationalist alternative to how a state could be constituted. <br /><br />Responding to Anastasopoulou, Devji raised the question of terminology. Lausanne had set a rhetorical precedent for the partition of India, but the UN refused to recognise the resettled populations as being “refugees,” as they had countries to receive them. However, the UK in the 1970s had applied the term “refugees” to the East African Asians, even though they had British passports. Anastasopoulou responded that the term “refugee” is, similarly, not strictly correct when speaking about the Greeks and Turks who were moved in the aftermath of Lausanne. Nevertheless, members and descendants of these resettled populations do identify with a positive refugee identity. Especially when speaking about modern migrants, the inhabitants of Lesvos, for example, position themselves as “refugees” regardless of their generational removal. <br /><br />Questions from the audience included one about the possibility of what Curzon referred to as a “benevolent unmixing” of populations, either through secession, segregation, or separation. Frank responded that one successful example was the Velvet Divorce of Czechoslovakia, while Giannakopoulos floated the idea of federalism. Another asked why the “national tragedy” of what the Greeks saw as the loss of Asia Minor was so keenly remembered. Anastasopoulou ascribed this to generational shifts: memory is dynamic, and what had once been a silent memory of trauma was re-awakened during Greece’s 1974 democratisation. <br /><br />One questioner challenged Giannakopoulos’ claim that Lausanne was a 19th century solution, drawing attention to the novelty of the “unmixing” idea which would come to inspire 20th century figures like Hitler. Frank agreed with this assessment, adding that Lausanne was in effect the first revision of the Treaty of Versailles, foreshadowing the Munich Conference. Its initial condemnation stemmed from a break with 19th century ideals of individual and property rights. Giannakopoulos accepted that Lausanne was revisionary but asserted it still “digested” older moments. Minorities began to be treated as a political problem since the 1870s, and the toolkit for resolving these problems had been inherited from that time. <br /><br />Another questioner said he was struck by contrasting attitudes among the resettled Greeks, asking what determines the tendency to feel empathy as opposed to rejection. Anastasopoulou answered that for one, geography matters: populations that style themselves as “guardians of the borders” are more convinced of Greek homogeneity and tend to be more hostile. Other variables include generational status, religion, culture, language, and memories of trauma, all of which construct a community of values. Those who do not share at least part of this identity invariably become an “other.” Often, the discourse does not simply oscillate between acceptance and rejection, but involves competitive victimisation as settled populations try to safeguard their position in society.SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-19312003231330319732022-11-14T12:55:00.002+00:002022-12-19T13:32:10.046+00:00Diaspora engagement in times of severe crisis: A European comparative perspective<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr3Lgoe-zrrdBgBx44EMLunxy17l5vsxANzNXRsbqHQlRZylEQG0epx1mo42vSZG2c2GWrREy_Fh5G9buQsKUcUwihO6ShRmJAGvUqyrV2ks20FoKwfRfGc1uUwFYvk0TheasPKFT0U2PoqWDU5_7ClHfprxHuXieKywqrMPKgXVuXPhc1TSpI0nKzDQ/s3215/Diaspora%20Engagement.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2192" data-original-width="3215" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr3Lgoe-zrrdBgBx44EMLunxy17l5vsxANzNXRsbqHQlRZylEQG0epx1mo42vSZG2c2GWrREy_Fh5G9buQsKUcUwihO6ShRmJAGvUqyrV2ks20FoKwfRfGc1uUwFYvk0TheasPKFT0U2PoqWDU5_7ClHfprxHuXieKywqrMPKgXVuXPhc1TSpI0nKzDQ/s320/Diaspora%20Engagement.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On Tuesday 8 November 2022, SEESOX, in cooperation with the European Studies Centre, convened a discussion entitled <i>Diaspora engagement in times of severe crisis: A European comparative perspective</i>, with Othon Anastasakis (Director, European Studies Centre) and Manolis Pratsinakis (COMPAS, Oxford) appearing as speakers. Contributing author Irina Laphsyna (Ukrainian Catholic University) delivered a presentation on her chapter, and Maria Koinova (University of Warwick) offered her comments on the volume. The event was convened on the occasion of the publication of the new book <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-97443-5">Diaspora engagement in times of severe economic crisis: Greece and beyond</a> (2022, Palgrave Macmillan) by Othon Anastasakis, Manolis Pratsinakis, Foteini Kalantzi, and Antonis Kamaras.<div><br />The driving question of the new book is: how do severe economic crises impact diaspora-homeland relations? The present volume addresses this question by exploring diaspora engagement in Greece during the protracted post-2009 eurozone crisis. It looks at the crisis as a critical juncture in Greece’s relations with its nationals abroad. The contributors explore aspects of diaspora engagement, including transnational mobilisation, homeland reform, the role of diasporic institutions, crisis driven migration, alongside comparisons with other countries in Europe. <br /><br />Anastasakis began the discussion with a general overview of the work. He situated the new wave of Greek emigration within the context of the 2009 economic crisis, the sharpest decline the country has seen since the 1930s. With a 25% decline in GDP and unemployment reaching 27%, the country introduced severe austerity measures. What followed was a wave of outward migration and severe brain drain, as public trust in the system plummeted. <br /><br />He then outlined several sub-questions within the book. Firstly, to what extent, and in which areas, was the crisis a cut-off point and the catalyst for different modes of diasporic engagement? Secondly, what types of engagement do we identify and how do these differ from the pre-crisis ones? Thirdly, did the crisis result in missed opportunities or even disengagement between homeland and particular diaspora actors and cohorts? Finally, was the Greek crisis an exceptional and unique case, or is it generalisable and relevant to other similar or parallel interactions of homeland-diaspora engagement in Europe during the years of the financial crisis?<span><a name='more'></a></span>The book follows multiple themes, including homeland reform, “new migration,” diaspora institutions, diasporic identities, and comparisons between diasporas. It also explores a number of case studies such as political engagement, human drain, philanthropic giving, and public diplomacy. Towards the conclusion of his presentation, Anastasakis highlighted new ways in which the Greek diaspora interacts with its homeland following the crisis. Particularly interesting was its importance to enabling voting from abroad, but other effects included the changing dynamics of transnational philanthropy and the creation of new economic networks. <br /><br />Pratsinakis’ presentation provided a comparative view of the phenomenon, drawing comparisons and contrasts between Greece and other Southern European countries. Emigration from Greece steeply increased in 2010, reaching over 60,000 at its peak. These rates were similarly high in Portugal, but much lower in Spain and Italy. In fact, while emigration rates doubled in the latter two, they stayed below the EU average. In all these countries, the outflow of professionals was significant. The private sector shrank while the public sector was no longer an option due to cuts and restrictions. <br /><br />He argued that in multiple important ways, structural conditions predated the financial crisis. Notably, Greece and Italy have the lowest rates of employment for young professionals in the EU. This is not due to an oversupply of educated people, as the share of people with university degrees is around the EU average. In reality, the labour market is simply failing to absorb new people and is plagued by nepotism and hierarchy. <br /><br />He also highlighted the fact that people’s motivations for emigrating have changed. In the past, emigration used to be a positive career move, with most émigrés planning to eventually return. After the crisis, people began to leave because of their disappointment in the country’s management and the lack of economic prospects. This group is planning to stay abroad longer, even indefinitely. <br /><br />Finally, Pratsinakis discussed the impact of emigration on diaspora-homeland relations. Firstly, the diaspora has become younger and more highly educated, contributing to Greece’s brain drain. Secondly, diasporic activism has increased, with the formation of new associations, an upsurge in protests against punitive austerity measures imposed on Greece, and growing solidarity with refugees at the peak of the so-called refugee crisis. Finally, the issue of emigration has become politicised in all four Southern European countries. For them, emigration symbolised economic and political decline, and opened discussions on how to sustain ties with the diaspora. <br /><br />Lapshyna presented the most important findings of her chapter, which is on the Ukrainian diaspora in Europe. Her major contribution was the discovery that Ukrainian discourses on migration and the diaspora have changed significantly with Euro-maidan. Before this event, Ukrainians perceived their compatriots abroad as traitors and defectors, labelling émigré women as prostitutes and blaming them for the “degradation of the family” and male alcoholism. Emigration was associated with the spread of drug use and HIV/AIDS, and was also seen as a security threat. She explained these negative perceptions as rooted in Ukraine’s Soviet history, during which time contacts with foreigners were highly monitored and emigration fell under heavy restrictions. <br /><br />Euro-maidan, however, changed domestic perceptions of the Ukrainian diaspora for the better. The population at home noted positively diasporans’ involvement in the uprising, as well as their defence of the country, and began to appreciate their contribution to the Ukrainian economy. The perception, Lapshyna concluded, has largely shifted from viewing diasporans as villains, to seeing them as goodwill ambassadors, investors, and lobbyists for Ukraine. <br /><br />Finally, Koinova commented on ideas she found notable in the new volume. First, she praised the book’s use of critical junctures. She highlighted how the state’s inability to deal with its own engagements financially and administratively opened a space for new actors, and how the crisis facilitated the movement in support of voting from abroad. Secondly, she highlighted the book’s treatment of social remittances in north-north migrations. Not many works, she said, analyse the cultural effects of emigration in this way. Finally, she discussed polycentric governance, which has increased as the state has weakened. Not only the EU, but also diasporic organisations, philanthropists, and ship owners have become significant actors in Greek affairs. <br /><br />In the Q&A, audience members asked about the implications of the state’s convalescence after the crisis. Anastasakis responded that a big mobilisation is under way to bring back the “brain drainers” or at least to try to work within the context of brain circulation. The Greek government is, at the very least, adopting a conscious approach to dealing with this problem. <br /><br /> Another question related to why émigrés are less prepared to invest in government initiatives in their home country. Pratsinakis responded that migration allows for disengagement from the state, and that many migrants prefer to engage with their families and friends rather than institutions. Anastasakis raised the point that money sent back to Greece was a drop in the ocean and that some diasporas were more likely to engage in community endeavours in their host countries. <br /><br />One audience member noted with surprise that remittances went down after the crisis and were in fact outweighed by money flowing in the other direction. She hypothesised that Greeks sent their money to foreign banks, trusting them more than their local banks. Pratsinakis acknowledged this phenomenon, but also added that the sociodemographic makeup of the new emigrants plays a role. A significant number came from better situated families who had no immediate need for the money. <br /><br />Another audience member asked whether people returned following the crisis and whether there is any meaningful circulation. She also proposed an alternative hypothesis for the phenomenon observed by Lapshyna: before Euro-Maidan, emigration was mostly confined to Ukraine’s Western oblasts, but the Russian invasion brought the experience of internal displacement and emigration to many more people. Pratsinakis answered that return rates continue to be low, with only 11% of respondents planning to return within a few years (and the same proportion actually doing so). There is, however, a large number of people moving back and forth. Lapshyna responded that many in Eastern Ukraine did have migration experiences moving to Russia, though their preferred destinations have recently changed. She appreciated the comment that migration has become a democratic experience, with migrants in Germany, for example, transferring social remittances back to Ukraine. <br /><br />The discussants were also asked about their favourite discoveries. Lapshyna said that she was struck by how both old and new diasporas felt that they were living in a parallel world to the Ukrainian state. Their contribution is not appreciated, nor is there any expectation on the side of diasporans that the state will help them. She also noted that all classes of migrants are engaged in Ukrainian affairs, not just the high earners but also the undocumented. Anastasakis highlighted the influence that new migrants had on voting law reform. He also raised the issue of people reverting back to former ways of life upon returning to their home countries, for example by engaging in corruption. </div><div><br /></div><div>Ladislav Charouz (ESC and SEESOX Research Assistant)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-17780591046738592822022-10-17T16:29:00.001+01:002022-10-17T16:29:15.510+01:00SEESOX Anniversary Day<iframe width="480" height="270" src="https://youtube.com/embed/UtB-bd7KXMs" frameborder="0"></iframe>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-71975554587379661612022-06-27T12:54:00.004+01:002023-07-04T13:52:16.517+01:00Weaponising Migration: Challenges For Europe<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZzxn3bI-4Kdee8NOzlDOR6sKvevtL58FQFacnsce7TgNLKRg3IuVwASbfY_AVF6aZbu3C9uyLVTXgQ55RkvRL47YGQ3EpjAwegjm9GsCSKiz-sAG2PnFkPQ46S8QSo86IBynZOtIciD1uljPwbVD9R2W8FbJozxp_8V7Gll7zARCRo_jkqDpnWVqAw/s1280/NLC6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZzxn3bI-4Kdee8NOzlDOR6sKvevtL58FQFacnsce7TgNLKRg3IuVwASbfY_AVF6aZbu3C9uyLVTXgQ55RkvRL47YGQ3EpjAwegjm9GsCSKiz-sAG2PnFkPQ46S8QSo86IBynZOtIciD1uljPwbVD9R2W8FbJozxp_8V7Gll7zARCRo_jkqDpnWVqAw/s320/NLC6.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>This 8th collaboration between SEESOX and Global Strategy Forum (GSF) took place on 22 June. Lord Lothian , Chair of GSF convened and welcomed, David Madden chaired, and Jacqueline Jinks directed proceedings. The panel consisted of: Dr Basak Kale, Professor of International Relations at the Middle East Technical University, Ankara; Asli Tore of SEESOX; Jonathan Scheele of SEESOX; and Dr Mehmet Karli, Co-ordinator of the Programme on Contemporary Turkey at SEESOX. They looked at a number of questions about migration diplomacy: how was it linked to foreign policy making; what were the linkages to geopolitical considerations; was it compatible with democratic politics; what was the current status of the EU-Turkey Deal; was the externalisation of the EU’s migration management to third countries sustainable? Basak Kale examined the factors behind and some of the consequences of the EUTurkey Deal, and drew some comparisons; Asli Tore provided a conceptual framework; Jonathan Scheele covered political implications, especially in the EU; and Mehmet Karli addressed the domestic politics and factors which had shaped Turkey’s stance on migration diplomacy. The overall conclusion was that migration diplomacy played an enormous role in the policies of today’s Europe, and was inter-connected with a very wide range of other issues. The same general conclusion emerged from the lunch hosted in the Attlee Dining Room of the House of Lords by Lord Lothian after the presentation: where the speaker was Professor Kelly Greenhill of Tufts University.<br /><br />David Madden (SEESOX and Distinguished Friend of St Antony's)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-27681586581006266052022-06-27T12:39:00.000+01:002023-03-20T15:34:03.400+00:00GSF/SEESOX Seminar: 'Weaponising Migration: Challenges For Europe' <iframe width="480" height="270" src="https://youtube.com/embed/obpVfTZ5les" frameborder="0"></iframe>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-34191683425436083562022-06-17T21:45:00.001+01:002022-08-14T21:48:54.225+01:00Free: Coming of Age at the end of History with Lea Ypi<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJksWOU_lFdh06GQd3-N-zk2dr-zMePCGs23ICypZmxD4Syl8PJ9hiiOAE_5Rb_LO2gYIpzgzRLXUguA7V_nvpQyqKu7T8cPVJ_MVnCathctUBKRKgInBV1jnJiB7H_ev6IhrZLml6sbbCdCE3R4H-vglkMyTsqws_F7u43D4lIOG7ET6gmnBfapFzLg/s3210/Lea%20Ypi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1736" data-original-width="3210" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJksWOU_lFdh06GQd3-N-zk2dr-zMePCGs23ICypZmxD4Syl8PJ9hiiOAE_5Rb_LO2gYIpzgzRLXUguA7V_nvpQyqKu7T8cPVJ_MVnCathctUBKRKgInBV1jnJiB7H_ev6IhrZLml6sbbCdCE3R4H-vglkMyTsqws_F7u43D4lIOG7ET6gmnBfapFzLg/s320/Lea%20Ypi.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On 13 June 2022 SEESOX was delighted to host Lea Ypi (London School of Economics), a professor of political theory at London School of Economics and the author of the much acclaimed book Free: Coming of age at the end of history. The event was chaired by Ezgi Başaran (St Antony’s College), and the discussants were Othon Anastasakis (St Antony’s College) and Paul Betts (St Antony’s College). Free tells the story of Ypi as a little girl, growing up in Albania as the country transitions from communism to a free market economy.<br /><br />After Başaran’s introduction of the author and the book, Lea Ypi read the first few pages to the audience and then provided some historical context. She explained that the part she read takes place in December 1990 - one year after the fall of the Berlin Wall and that one of the reasons why Albania was not immediately touched by the events taking place in other parts of Eastern Europe at the time was the fact that it had a peculiar communist history, namely a history that made it believe that it was the only truly communist country in the world. This self-understanding was derived from being one of the two countries in Europe – the other one being Yugoslavia - that had liberated from the Nazi fascist occupation without help from either the Allies or the Soviets. The idea of living in a country that stands up to super powers had a central role in the main character’s identity as a child as well, believing that she is part of the only truly free country in the world because all of the others have sold out. Yet, during the time in which the changes in Western Europe reach Albania and economic protests turn into political protests, the character discovers via different responses to the protests that the two points of view that she has always assumed were somehow aligned with each other – the one of her family and the state – were in fact pulling in opposite directions. This occasion triggers a re-visiting of all other occasions of unalignment and turns into a coming of age story of the discovery of truth about freedom and non-freedom in which the character has lived both as it applies to her family and the state. At the same time, the process of self-discovery and trying to understand what freedom actually is characterizes not just the character but the country as well. Freedom, which is the central concept that animates all of the dialogues and conflicts in the book, often appears as an ideal, as an illusion and disillusionment. Through the relationships between the child and the parents, and the parents and the society, the book portrays different understandings of freedom at play, both from an institutional perspective as it is captured by the respective ideologies of two different systems, but also as a kind of moral ideal that people still believe in regardless of how it is actually captured by these different ideologies. The author noted that the reason why she chose this format, with a lot of dialogue and conflict within and between characters, was to draw attention to the agency of people, which they exercise by making moral decisions and trying to find the truth even in very constrained and oppressive regimes.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Paul Betts praised the book for its sharp observations and wit, and described the book as a meditation on the meaning and limitations of freedom itself, and the story as a double disenchantment – first with communism and then with liberalism. He made three points. One was on the force of history and on the message in the book that past can never be reclaimed or re-possessed, but only acknowledged and understood. The second one was on the strong sense of place in the book and the third point was on Ypi’s sensitivity to the imported language changes<br /><br />accompanying the liberalization of the country. He said that the idea of freedom is left open and ambiguous, and it is not clear if the story is really one of progress at all. The memoir, he noted, is a great achievement precisely because it speaks so directly to the political crises and soul-searching of our time, but it is in no way confined in the history of Albania or even Eastern Europe, but offers a powerful testimony of the afterlife of the hopes and disappointments of the 20th century and the first two decades of the 21st.<br /><br />Othon Anastasakis explained how the book has resonated with him in three ways: as a reader of memoirs, as a scholar of Balkan studies, and as a Greek citizen with some more familiarity with Albania than the rest of the world. He commented on how brilliantly the author has combined different disciplines of politics, oral history, philosophy, sociology, and anthropology in her story. Then, he posed four questions to the author: the first one was about whether the author views Albania as an exceptional case of transition, the second one was on how Albania managed to not get engulfed in the Yugoslav Wars despite its geographic proximity and ethnic solidarity with Kosovo Albanians and its religious heterogeneity, the third one was about the state of freedom in Albania after 1997, and the fourth one asked whether the author has found her own freedom after coming to the West.<br /><br />After responding to questions posed by the discussants, Ypi answered questions by the audience about freedom as a moral ideal, about the extent to which the degree of personal agency and moral choices are different under the communist rule, about the role of Enver Hoxha vs. Stalin, on truth and reconciliation, on the limits of freedom under liberalism and the actual starkness of the transition in Albania.<div><br /></div><div>Asli Tore (SEESOX Research Assistant)</div>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-3264974199849606322022-06-14T16:01:00.006+01:002022-08-11T16:12:16.117+01:00South East Europe in the shadow of the war in Ukraine: Part 2<p>Panel 2: Security challenges within the region</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhknxGkeNIFcX23JRMoxqQdlxWBjg5lWQRKav5uLrvKxT2LcCKSt3Hb6866KLcdJ6ajamT3bhjZeFZt8VrQTqzOne0B6B38AZm5ksXgGoIcYCEv_mSWpnzftqPbvuHDJZ6HWkObOWHJ7iUfK425e5eh4HrJ0y8076XZltvPPSZD-Fzn26-VK2qBLfJWog/s1652/Panel%202.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="1652" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhknxGkeNIFcX23JRMoxqQdlxWBjg5lWQRKav5uLrvKxT2LcCKSt3Hb6866KLcdJ6ajamT3bhjZeFZt8VrQTqzOne0B6B38AZm5ksXgGoIcYCEv_mSWpnzftqPbvuHDJZ6HWkObOWHJ7iUfK425e5eh4HrJ0y8076XZltvPPSZD-Fzn26-VK2qBLfJWog/s320/Panel%202.png" width="320" /></a></div>The second panel, chaired by Kalypso Nicolaidis (European University Institute), discussed security challenges in the region, in its changing global environment. <br /><br />Dimitar Bechev (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies) cited three pieces of evidence of a new multipolarity. The first is obviously the war in Ukraine, where key regional players are not taking sides. The second is the pandemic, where China’s role in medical supplies to the region is salient, despite the EU’s doing the heavy lifting. And the third is the current role of Turkey, which has evolved from an EU candidate to a bona fide independent regional player. Unsurprisingly, regional elites are seeking to leverage the new geopolitical situation for external support, domestically or for neighbours, or to scare the West. This game-playing—of which Putin is a master—has historical precedents (e.g., Tsipras’s unsuccessful bid for Russian support to improve Greek bargaining power with Brussels). A main point here is that, in the region’s small countries, all politics continue to be local. Twenty years of EU reform efforts have not changed local elites’ incentives to maintain a lucrative independence and resist changes to the status quo. <br /><br />Milos Damjanovic (Balkan Investigative Reporting Network) took on the question of whether Serbia is acting as a Trojan horse in the region. He argued that Serbia will ultimately align with the West, although pro-Russian sentiments in Serbia are at an historic high, and Serbia has not imposed sanctions. Historically, Serbia has more often been pro-western, with the pendulum swinging as national interest dictates. Current Russian support dates from the NATO bombing of the 1990s. Even then, Serbia remained pro-EU and kept Russia at a distance until Western recognition of Kosovo forced Serbia to rely on Russian support. The dilemma is a difficult one for domestic politics: how can Serbia side with the countries that invaded its territory, while condemning Russia for invading Ukraine? Vucic would prefer to be invisible (‘crawl under a stone’) but in the end, if Serbia has to choose sides, it will align with the West. Most Serbs want to join the EU. Damjanovic agreed with Bechev that a ‘waiting room’ for EU accession, or other second-tier membership, would carry a real danger of allowing regional elites to continue milking the system without pursuing reforms.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Adis Merdzanovic (Zurich University of Applied Sciences) looked at the current situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Secessionist tendencies in Republika Srpska have increased in recent months, and are no longer merely electoral rhetoric. In a dangerous development, the Bosnian Serb leadership is in coalition with Bosnian Croats to redirect electoral reform towards creation of an exclusionary ethnocracy. The West remains more directly powerful in Bosnia than elsewhere in the region. The previous reduction of EUFOR had begun to be reversed even before Ukraine; some Serbians are subject to US and UK sanctions; and the High Representative has wielded power strategically via funding decisions. The Ukraine war does affect Bosnia: the transfer of powers to Republika Srpska has halted, and if any security issue blows up in the region, it will surely start in Bosnia. But the broader point goes beyond the ‘temporary’ Ukraine situation: The potential for Bosnian EU accession is dead, because no progress is possible with the current political elites. The younger generation is emigrating rather than objecting. Conceivably UK support for Bosnian territorial integrity could break the stasis, if the US could also be enlisted, but this does not look likely. <br /><br />Kerem Öktem (Università Ca' Foscari, Venice) said that the Ukraine War provided a lifeline for the Erdogan regime, allowing Erdogan to reposition himself as an arbiter and a man of peace, thanks to close relations with both Russia and the Ukraine. In this respect, Erdogan has been a beneficiary of the Ukraine War, as it increased Turkey’s political clout, after years of self-imposed international isolation. EU accession prospects for Turkey are now effectively non-existent. This is a tragedy, considering how, in the early 2000s, EU membership prospects enabled impressive domestic reform. Now Turkey’s relations with the EU have become purely transactional—notably, to manage refugees. The country has transformed into an authoritarian regime, with the goal of regime survival the primary focus, and with unpredictability its most predictable characteristic. Foreign policy is motivated primarily by the goal of regime survival (meaning it can create conflict if needed to mobilize nationalist groups for elections—e.g., relations with Israel and Greece), and also by a push for global Islamism from some quarters. Ukraine-EU relations are followed closely, as a firmer prospect for Ukrainian EU membership would further weaken Turkish hopes for some form of EU membership. Turkey is very unlikely to become a member of the EU in its current form. The question is whether the EU can change and diversify so that Turkey can become a meaningful part of it. Turkey will go through some deep crises before it improves, and at the moment, the EU has lost both carrots and sticks to influence Turkish politics. The most likely scenario is that we are in much the same position in ten years’ time, preferably with the difference that some measure of democracy has been re-established in Turkey. <br /><br />Marilena Simiti (Department of International and European Studies, University of Piraeus; SEESOX) described Greece’s position, which is very different: the Greek government has taken a clear pro-Ukraine, pro-Western stand from the outset, with sanctions and military support. That said, the Greek public is more nuanced: while condemning the war, the majority ascribes equal responsibility to NATO and Russia. Anti-US tendencies can be explained by Greece’s history of foreign interference (for instance in the civil war and the military dictatorship of 1967). Some leftists favour Greek neutrality; others condemn the invasion but want to remain neutral; and many accuse the West of double standards; the commonality of Orthodox religion is a pro-Russian factor; and the far right strongly supports Putin. While public opinion does not dictate decision-making in Greece, it certainly influences it, with unresolved issues sure to resurface in times of tension. <br /><br />Q & A. The informal discussion started by observing that the same entrenched patterns continue to resurface in the region, though discussants agreed that the concept of a region, ‘Western Balkans’, is a misnomer since each country’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been idiosyncratic. If Ukraine were to become a candidate for EU accession, little would change in the region. Perhaps a more open attitude to accession might allow, say, Montenegro to become a member in the next decade or so; but in general, convergence prospects for the region are extremely slow. On the other hand, inviting Ukraine in would be a final blow for Turkey, pushing it to the back of a queue longer than existed when it began to explore accession. <br /><br />Adrienne Cheasty (SEESOS Associste; Europaeum)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-88713382259264193262022-06-13T15:59:00.003+01:002022-08-11T16:17:12.113+01:00South East Europe in the shadow of the war in Ukraine: Part 1Panel 1: The relationship between the EU and the countries of the region <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGSyr1DXXNHuzziYiCwyQwQepGbFLiws-lrd-QJTwUAV2N1iJD_wrBakKXoE7OF-wy4zif6oNTvj8VewWCuKM2kSvZ-7h2Fm81XfJkkqm2HjX4B156E_pna8yJm56IF3PXbHFwjiS7dMF0SP_QQu51ln4re3H_wWHyPcdAg9tKDFNQimN9cDJHQvGJcw/s1750/Panel%201.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="984" data-original-width="1750" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGSyr1DXXNHuzziYiCwyQwQepGbFLiws-lrd-QJTwUAV2N1iJD_wrBakKXoE7OF-wy4zif6oNTvj8VewWCuKM2kSvZ-7h2Fm81XfJkkqm2HjX4B156E_pna8yJm56IF3PXbHFwjiS7dMF0SP_QQu51ln4re3H_wWHyPcdAg9tKDFNQimN9cDJHQvGJcw/s320/Panel%201.png" width="320" /></a></div><!--[if !mso]>
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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]-->The main event at the SEESOX Twentieth Anniversary Day, on 8 June 2022 was a pair of panels looking at the implications of war in Ukraine for the region. <br /><br /> The first panel was chaired by David Madden (SEESOX); it discussed the region’s changing relationship with the EU, consequent on the war in Ukraine.<br /><br />Michael Emerson (Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels) began by recalling that the Commission would be presenting three Opinions next week, on the accession applications by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia; the European Council would discuss them on 23 June. Since the applications had been lodged, both President Macron and European Council President Michel had put forward proposals for involving new states in a form of political community, in the latter case as a complement to accession, while the former was more ambiguous. These applications were reviving interest in West Balkans enlargement, where CEPS had put forward a template for “staged accession”. The European Council would have to resolve a complex simultaneous equation, addressing the new three, the western Balkan six, and EU internal organisation. As regards the applications themselves, CEPS saw all three countries as broadly on a par with most of the West Balkans candidates, but ahead of Bosnia and Kosovo. The war created a moral obligation for the EU to react positively on Ukraine, as things could not wait until after the war; but granting candidate status could not be a short cut for regular accession negotiations thereafter. Moldova, while economically weak, had recently shown remarkable progress on the political front. Georgia was a paradox; while its economy was in better shape than the other two, there was growing evidence of state capture and of press freedom restrictions; these should disqualify it from candidate status.<span><a name='more'></a></span>Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX) noted that most previous enlargements had been driven by a geostrategic imperative to consolidate democracy – Greece, Spain, Portugal, and in Central and Eastern Europe. The Thessaloniki Summit in 2003 represented the high-water mark of the 1990s geostrategic imperative, with Croatia’s accession in 2013 perhaps its last gasp. Since then, the Western Balkans accession process had stalled and the declaration in Thessaloniki that the Stabilisation and Association Process would “serve as an anchor for reform” in the region rang hollow. How far did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine change this situation? Clearly, as shown by various statements about the political nature of enlargement, Member States were keen not to give the impression that Ukraine’s application might be an excuse for abandoning Western Balkans aspirations. And Russia was exercising a destabilising role in parts of the region, which only a credible accession prospect could counter. In parallel, the role of Central and Eastern European Member States in EU policy making was growing, rendering Franco-German hesitations less sustainable. However, the absence of reforms in the Western Balkan candidate countries could not be ignored. In short, a rapid EU rethink of its approach to the region was needed; were the ideas floating around sufficiently attractive and practical? Whether EU policymakers would have the courage to respond to this new geostrategic imperative remained to be seen., <br /><br />Eli Gateva (DPIR, Oxford) addressed the state of the rule of law (RoL) in the region. The EU has stressed that the rule of law is the backbone of any modern constitutional democracy and confirmed that it is one of the fundamental values on which the EU is founded as well as a guiding principle for the Union’s external action. While the EU had lacked a consistent definition of RoL, its understanding of the concept had evolved over the last 25 years. The EU has developed rule of law instruments with a broad focus on promoting state institutions providing fair and equal treatment. In addition to focusing on the rule of law at an early stage in accession process, the EU has placed it at the heart of its enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans. Furthermore, the EU has taken steps to address concerns about double standards and introduced the Rule of Law Report which traces developments in all EU member states.. Although the state of the rule of law in candidate and potential candidate countries challenges the claim that the EU can have a transformative impact, Romania is? a remarkable example of the effects of strengthening institutions and fighting corruption and demonstrates that the Union can play an important role even after accession by empowering pro-reform domestic actors. The key to success had been domestic agency – domestic ownership of reform had led to real change, and an ability to influence Brussels’ approach. In South East Europe where the rule of law deficiencies are systematic, the Union can influence reforms but their implementation, success and sustainability of reforms depends on domestic agency.<br /><br />Kristijan Fidanovski (Department of Social Policy and Intervention, Oxford) underlined that EU conditionality in the enlargement process had become ever more complex over time. North Macedonia faced growing obstacles of a political nature, and accession negotiations remained a distant prospect, with successive blockages from Greece, then France, and now Bulgaria, while Albania was collateral damage. The Bulgaria situation could be interpreted in two ways: as a “politically invented” dispute belying a history of stable relations since Bulgaria’s early recognition of North Macedonia in 1992; or as a dormant dispute that was revived in 2020, with recognition in 1992 being of a country, rather than of a language or a culture. The main issues were differing approaches to history - especially to the events of World War II - language, and a human rights narrative using differing assessments of the number of North Macedonian citizens of Bulgarian ethnicity (100,000 or 3,000). The hopes of North Macedonians that the EU might put pressure on Bulgaria to resolve the dispute had not been fulfilled, so that a bilateral solution might be the only way forward. <br /><br />Jens Bastian (German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)) reviewed the impact within the region of EU sanctions on Russia, where the six packages had been neither completely adopted nor implemented. Serbia and Republika Srpska had refused to join, constituting an element of division and a challenge to the policy of alignment with the EU. The new gas deal signed in Belgrade this week, and references to a “Russo-Serbian strategic partnership”, called into question how Belgrade could continue to conduct accession negotiations in Brussels. At the same time, the rest of the region, rather than strengthening energy dependence on Russia, like Serbia, was reducing it. But even in the energy sector, there were carve-outs for Russian-sourced nuclear fuel. Serbia maintained an open airspace to Russia, but to no effect, its NATO neighbours had closed theirs. The divergence on commitment to sanctions would create further difficulties for the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. <br /><br />Kalypso Nicolaidis (European University Institute; SEESOX) noted that EU enlargement had been on the table of SEESOX since its foundation, but the initial geopolitical imperative had been overtaken by more legalistic and technocratic concerns. The politics of energy transition were very much at the forefront of minds, though the EU would always accommodate dissent where this was technically feasible, as in the case of the Russian oil embargo; but financial aid for those inside the EU was not the same as for those outside. The introduction of new candidates would reconfigure the accession process in the West Balkans; but whom would this benefit? For the “stallers”, like Macron and the EU institutions, putting the new candidates in the same bag as the Western Balkans might delay things; for the “accelerators”, Ukraine’s candidacy could be used to speed up accession for everybody, giving the role of the Central European Member States greater legitimacy. How far could this gap be bridged to lead to an optimal solution? An incremental approach might help, as well as support for domestic agency in the candidates. <br /><br />Q & A. A lively session raised questions about the risk of a geopolitical imperative encouraging existing EU members to ignore values; the likelihood of real engagement by the EU in enlargement; the risk of ideas like Macron’s being seen as a form of “second tier” membership; the continuing refusal of five Member States to recognise Kosovo; and whether the EU currently had the confidence and the economic growth necessary to sustain a major enlargement.Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX Associate; SEESOX Blog Editor)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-3389284822512826982022-06-06T15:56:00.001+01:002022-08-11T16:03:28.185+01:00Getting Older: Demographic challenges in South East Europe<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9wIFOqL10F2_S11WtQdcxQHQizdqMTrPln_rIwhIbIiypPzCfPSATJu-dnfoEPZuUAb3vgXKqQPy2Rhasi8WfwxvFp8rjosTV9V0yaCEZd_k7jpkpE2jryZwBAL552YuCmhzTQiH8v-0ZL_AtfmyLgpfMwBF77Pl1e4tVoafVsL_aDTzRYAi__FGsFg/s600/woman-1848676_1280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="600" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9wIFOqL10F2_S11WtQdcxQHQizdqMTrPln_rIwhIbIiypPzCfPSATJu-dnfoEPZuUAb3vgXKqQPy2Rhasi8WfwxvFp8rjosTV9V0yaCEZd_k7jpkpE2jryZwBAL552YuCmhzTQiH8v-0ZL_AtfmyLgpfMwBF77Pl1e4tVoafVsL_aDTzRYAi__FGsFg/s320/woman-1848676_1280.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On June 1, 2022, a SEESOX panel, chaired by Kristijan Fidanovski (Department of Social Policy and Intervention, Oxford), examined the causes and consequences of Southeast Europe’s rapidly ageing population. While all European populations are graying, the Balkans are ageing in the context of absolute population decline over the last few decades, with potentially serious ramifications for the intergenerational social contract in South East Europe. <br /><br />Arjan Gjonça (Department of International Development, LSE) took stock of the three drivers of population ageing: low fertility, growing life expectancy, and net emigration. Fertility is much below the replacement rate (1.3 to 1.8, instead of 2.1 births per woman)—despite earlier marriages and first births than the EU average—and regional life expectancy is quite long. However, it is clear that the main driver of distortion in the population pyramid is the significant net emigration from the region in the past thirty years. In Albania, the most extreme case, one-third of the 1989 population has since emigrated. <span></span><p></p><a name='more'></a> Dijana Spasenoska (Department of Social Policy, LSE) drilled down into health aspects. Life expectancy has increased, for both men and women, while still below the EU average everywhere except Slovenia, with Serbia and North Macedonia lowest. Some groups, e.g., Roma women in North Macedonia, remain particularly disadvantaged. The rise can be explained by reductions in heart disease, traffic accidents, etc., offset somewhat by more incidence of cancer. A main risk factor for the region is that tobacco and alcohol use are exceptionally high; e.g., 60% of Albanian males smoke. The high risk-factors suggest that preventative health measures should be a policy priority, to preclude a high health bill later. The economic cost of non-communicable diseases is not only their direct health care cost but also the associated loss in productivity. The underdevelopment of the health system means that much health care remains informal, borne by families. Catastrophic health bills (of more than 40% of income) were suffered by a significant share (6.5% of North Macedonians), of which much is related to eldercare costs. Older men and widows (with weaker social networks) are at greatest risk and more likely to self-harm. <br /><br />Vladimir Nikitovic (Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade) drilled down into migration—while cautioning that data deficiencies constrain precise conclusions. Projections in most countries have underestimated migration, with eventual census information showing worse outcomes. Despite data issues, it is clear that migration has a strong impact on the size and structure of young generations. Patterns of migration have changed over the last ten years. For instance, Serbian migration to Austria between 2011-18 was heavily concentrated in the 20-30-year age cohort. The motives for migration can be explored by looking at relocation permits. Unsurprisingly, work residency permits for the EU are high for the Western Balkans, with new EU member states having much higher first-residency permits than other countries. Conversely, family reunion permits are the main expressed motive for travel into the Western Balkans. Germany’s Western Balkans regulation of 2016 significantly simplified the process for job immigration to Germany. Nikitovic’s projections suggest a continued strong decline in the West Balkans 20-30 year-old age cohort—which in turns suggests that policies should pivot towards net immigration. <br /><br />Branimir Jovanovic (Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna) discussed the socio-economic challenges from ageing in Southeast Europe. He raised two main issues. <br /><br />o The first is the problem that ageing is closely associated with lower growth (since the neoclassical growth model is driven by the labor force (with capital and technology)). The likelihood that the labor force will continue to decline suggests poor prospects for growth over the coming decades. Other recent EU members have achieved a convergence of income over time. Baltic income is now 85% of the EU average and Visegrad countries’ 80%. But the nine economies of SEE have been extremely slow to show signs of converging. Together their income is about 50% of the EU average, and, if new member states are excluded, only about 30%, with clear non-convergence. <br /><br />o A second, related issue is that the old-age dependency ratio has shot up in the Western Balkans. It has risen from 9-14% in the 1990s to 20-29% in the 2020s. This remains lower than in the euro area (32%), but the upward trend is much steeper, so it will catch up. The dependency ratio is a measure of people living off passive income rather than producing. Societies with this characteristic require greater redistribution and face higher healthcare costs. In turn, this calls for more active government policy. It is thus a problem that social systems in the Western Balkans are so underdeveloped compared with the euro area’s—where total government expenditure of more than 50% of GDP is the norm. Western Balkan governments can afford to spend only 30-40% GDP, since their tax revenue is much lower (e.g., Albania’s tax ratio is 27% of GDP, compared with Germany’s 47%). With these more limited possibilities for redistribution, the at-risk poverty rate in the Western Balkans is much higher than in other EU countries. <br /><br />The informal discussion focused on possible policy responses to the ageing problem. The panelists were clear that economic development is just about the only feasible solution—with Ireland being the best example of high emigration followed by catch-up and eventual migration reversal. However, they were not optimistic about prospects for this in the Western Balkans. Opening the doors to migrants from elsewhere would be another logical strategy, but panelists saw the region as being “extremely unenthusiastic” to follow this path. Certain policies to support fertility could be helpful, but they tend to be expensive and have limited results (for instance, generous cash transfers to parents tend to be attractive only to the poorest, who usually have multiple children regardless of policy). One panelist was of the view that left-wing redistributive policies, financed by higher taxation, would be the best way forward, but did not discuss how this would be consistent with encouraging catch-up economic development. <br /><br />Adrienne Cheasty, Europaeum<p></p>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-6254461299215071392022-06-01T11:24:00.004+01:002022-06-01T15:05:35.679+01:00The EU as a State-Builder in international affairs: The case of Kosovo<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCqk7Mc1Dn7v1yFYcCDZvamwjKH_AwB2PSax0CTHCGDl_X2fLQe0-2aHIh6fudUDu9shCZ0MGvk09NbQobMQm7twJdfOp3oNQqp4G423PgSucSAn9WSeWs_b8tbqBvZO1gcHXVeH6JqDu7qvtLPLM5YTy3u3n_nKF6a3d7OrxjnnRmrwCm1kOqrPyF4w/s2506/Labinot%20book.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1401" data-original-width="2506" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCqk7Mc1Dn7v1yFYcCDZvamwjKH_AwB2PSax0CTHCGDl_X2fLQe0-2aHIh6fudUDu9shCZ0MGvk09NbQobMQm7twJdfOp3oNQqp4G423PgSucSAn9WSeWs_b8tbqBvZO1gcHXVeH6JqDu7qvtLPLM5YTy3u3n_nKF6a3d7OrxjnnRmrwCm1kOqrPyF4w/s320/Labinot%20book.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>On 18 May 2022, SEESOX hosted the first of its Trinity Term Seminars, in hybrid format, on The EU as a State-Builder in international affairs: The case of Kosovo. The speaker was Labinot Greiçevci (Research Institute of Development and European Affairs, Pristina) with Belina Budini (European University of Tirana, and SEESOX) as discussant. The session was chaired by Richard Caplan (DPIR, Oxford).<br /><p></p>Greiçevci was presenting his recently-published book, bearing the same title as the seminar, which looked at the role of the EU, and other international actors (USA, NATO, Russia, China, and Turkey) in state-building, using Kosovo as a case study, but looking also at other countries in the region, each of which had its own particularities. The book was based on research begun in 2006 and continued at various points through to 2021; it involved, among other techniques, elite interviews in Kosovo, Brussels and Berlin, including local and international officials, CSO reps, media and academia. He had developed a ranking for failure or success in state-building efforts running from 1 (failure) to 5 (complete success). <br /><br />Recalling relevant theoretical perspectives – Liberal Peace Theory (LPF) and Normative Power Europe (NPE) – his work had attempted to combine both, looking at diffusion mechanisms, both overt (physical presence/political role) and through transference (technical assistance, funding). His analysis distinguished two separate stages, from 1999 to 2008, prior to Kosovo’s independence declaration, and from 2008 to 2020, looking at both tangible and normative impact in the first stage, and only at normative impact in the second (since tangible impact was complete with institutions in place after independence). In both stages, he had distinguished between the key and the assistant role of the EU and other actors.<span><a name='more'></a></span>For Stage 1, he saw substantial success (4) as regards tangible impact, and relative success (3) for normative impact. The EU had been the key actor, through transference diffusion, while other actors (Quint – UK, France, USA, Germany, Italy) had been key in overt diffusion. In Stage 2, the EU-facilitated Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, begun in 2011, had been a complementary tool for norm diffusion, with the EU having recourse to constructive ambiguity to achieve agreement; among numerous examples, he highlighted the agreements on an association of Serb majority municipalities and on integrated border management. He noted that, while such ambiguity certainly facilitated agreement, consequent differing interpretations created implementation problems, that would only be resolved through a final, comprehensive, and legally binding settlement. Consequently, in stage 2, the EU had been the key actor in achieving normative impact, through both overt and transference diffusion, but with only relative success (3); despite progress in some areas, the EU’s inability to move to full recognition of Kosovo undermined the credibility of the letter’s accession perspective. <br /><br />His conclusion was that the EU had undeniable advantages as a state-builder, given its nature as a “Kantian paradise” preserving internal peace, its readymade normative framework, its demonstrable transformative power, and its economic potential. It faced a number of challenges, however, reflecting both horizontal conflicts between EU Member States – particularly on recognition – and a consequent tendency towards lowest common denominator solutions, and continuing staffing problems for its missions in Kosovo, following the appointment of corrupt individuals. If the EU were to succeed in Kosovo, it needed to resolve its internal conflict over recognition; otherwise a more pro-active role from other western actors (USA, UK) was needed. Kosovo represented a case study for whether the EU could learn the lessons of the 1990s (as it had so far failed to do), while success for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans needed to include all six countries, as the more rapid advance of some carried risks. The region was a crucial test for the EU as an international actor and depended on achieving a sustainable solution for Serbia/Kosovo relations. <br /><br />Budini welcomed the book as a valuable contribution to filling a gap in the extensive literature on state-building in general and in Kosovo, by focusing on the EU’s role there. While a new global disorder seemed to have emerged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, progress in Kosovo represented an overall success story. The EU’s role there and in the region, alongside the UN, USA and its allies, certainly could not be considered a failure, even if some elements may have been ineffective. The state-building paradigm had evolved in favour of the creation of much greater local legitimacy, while Kosovo’s success also owed much to its political culture, including a longstanding tradition of free and fair elections; but the EU had been an important factor in this success. As regards methodology, she wondered whether more complete transcripts of interviews could have facilitated understanding of the views of the interviewees. <br /><br />The Q & A session raised a range of issues: <br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Achieving a greater role for the Quint: although the Quint continues to play a role, the EU has received a mandate from the UNGA to facilitate the Serbia/Kosovo dialogue and to report back on a final settlement for approval by the UNGA. Given the activity of the various Special envoys (USA, Germany, UK) a de facto revival of the Quint appeared to be under way, but the EU retained the formal role. </li><li>The role of constructive ambiguity in meetings where trust building prevented the preparation of formal minutes: the issue was one of implementation once an ambiguous agreement had been reached. So far only technical agreements had been successfully implemented, without affecting positively the lives of ordinary citizens; the overall situation was more relaxed but without fundamental progress.</li><li>Kosovo as a form of EU/NATO Protectorate? The use of the term “protectorate” failed to reflect the level of the political culture in Kosovo, but it was undeniable that the framework was led by international actors, who could decide the way forward in the absence of internal agreement, as in the 2001 case (prior to independence) of the designation of Kosovo’s “Constitutional Framework”, rather than “Constitution”.</li><li>The impact of Brexit on the role of the UK: the Quint Ambassadors continue to meet in Kosovo, and, to some extent, the UK can use its newly independent status to modify its policies in the region, while continuing to coordinate its policies with the EU, albeit with a higher profile. While no doubt the UK had less internal capacity to focus on the region, due to Brexit overload, its recent appointment of an active Special Envoy to the region clearly represented a new initiative. </li><li>Improving UK engagement with the region through trade and FDI: trade relations between the region and other EU member States were in some instances quite strong, compared with those of the UK, and its attempts so far, though welcome, remained fairly limited.</li><li>The role of pragmatism in EU foreign policy and its tendency to favour stability over democracy: it was true that, since 1999, the EU had given priority to achieving stability before promoting democracy. But failure to promote democratic policies in the region undermined EU credibility; an example was the EU’s still unfulfilled promise of Schengen visa liberalisation, leaving Kosovo as a sort of unique “black hole” in SE Europe.</li></ul>Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX Associate)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-27967362019074469292022-05-23T12:15:00.000+01:002022-07-04T16:01:15.430+01:00The future of European security after the war in Ukraine<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXkf-t1iFQ3UDaDACiL_ayJK7s05DDwNOlQxGjJP7JeB4aE98jWIzULo-dzHqdmDVrc4uFO5BdI9_agpHtNiQtYucvmzZ0EhK_Pf3ZgupnFcxIJJ-d7CqYn0A9KnZvZB8fEOvlkHxE_hSE4lHxay0loi8MDeLfC9Gy5GFu-kxnGd9r7GusW_suG_l-CQ/s600/lord_robertson_photograph.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="600" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXkf-t1iFQ3UDaDACiL_ayJK7s05DDwNOlQxGjJP7JeB4aE98jWIzULo-dzHqdmDVrc4uFO5BdI9_agpHtNiQtYucvmzZ0EhK_Pf3ZgupnFcxIJJ-d7CqYn0A9KnZvZB8fEOvlkHxE_hSE4lHxay0loi8MDeLfC9Gy5GFu-kxnGd9r7GusW_suG_l-CQ/s320/lord_robertson_photograph.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>On 17 May, Lord Robertson, former NATO Secretary General, gave the annual SEESOX/ESC lecture in St Antony’s college. The Directors of the ESC and SEESOX, Hartmut Mayer and Othon Anastasakis, chaired jointly. <br /><br />Lord Robertson began by describing Russia as an immensely complicated entity. It was important to distinguish fact from fiction. The 9 May Victory Day parade in Moscow was impressive, but had nothing to do with the facts on the ground in Ukraine. The Ukrainians - part of anti-Nazi fighters in the Second World War- were now fighting Russia. And the Russian Army was apparently no longer capable of fighting against people who didn’t want them. <br /><br />The parade prompted three observations: victory in the war was not Russia’s alone, but equally we should recognise Soviet losses; there was a danger of conflating Russia and Putin – the Putin clique was not representative of his people; Russia was given insufficient credit for allowing a peaceful transfer of power in Poland and a peaceful conclusion of communism. The contrast with China and Tienanmen Square was stark. <br /><br />Putin gave a totally dishonest characterisation of Ukraine: because of his emotionalism and messianic obsession with Russia. But the West should avoid provoking the thin-skinned Putin into even more reckless behaviour. He appeared convinced that NATO was a threat; but if so, why had he moved all troops away from the NATO frontier?<span><a name='more'></a></span>Words mattered. There was a risk of reactions to loose western language. We should be supportive but leave the conduct of the war to the Ukrainians who would have to live with the consequences. <br /><br />As for the future of European security, it was our duty to think beyond immediate events. Russia would still be there. Our argument was with the Putin clique, not the Russian people. Our aim was to defend Ukraine, not attack Russia. Young generations of Russians traduced by Putin propaganda deserved an idea of where Russia’s future role lay in European security. <br /><br />The NATO Russia Council was created in 2002. It set out a path which initially produced real results, including: two joint conferences on military aspects of counter-terrorism; discussion of chemical weapons; ammunition disposal; Search & Rescue at sea; Proliferation etc. <br /><br />It was a huge agenda initially compromised by the then US administration and then abandoned after Russia’s attack on Georgia. How should we move onwards with younger Russians? Before Putin, the Russian people had been connected to the world. Disconnection showed Putin was scared of Russian people. We needed to reconnect. How? <br /><br />One way was to recreate a joint understanding of shared experiences. We needed to demonstrate a future for Russians and a future with values that we shared; and we needed them on our side as the world faced the urgency of climate change, global terrorism, organised crime, migration, instability, pandemics. <br /><br />At the end of The Second World War and Cold War Russia was respected and stood proud. We needed to restore that and a perspective of hope and cooperation. <br /><br />There were many questions in a wide-ranging Q&A session: covering Russia’ s greatness or not; nationalistic leanings of young Russians; getting away from the Soviet view of history; Erdogan’s statements on Swedish/Finnish accession to NATO; the danger of personal sanctions disaffecting people whose support could be helpful; the consequences if Trump had been US President; the demand for democracy (or not) within Russia; was the West sufficiently sensitive in the manner of NATO enlargement; was there scope for NATO and the EU between them to create non-“threatening” policies; in NATO enlargement, should a promise of membership go hand in hand with protection; what should we say to Ukraine (or others) about the Budapest Memorandum; what if Ukraine sought to restore pre-23 February boundaries; was it best to let the Russian economy collapse and become like Iran or North Korea; the rapidity of war crimes tribunals (new /deterrent); implications for China, India and Brazil; role of UK; could we learn good lessons from the Cold War period? <br /><br />Lord Robertson protested that he was not a historian. But it was clear that we needed to include Russia and treat them as an equal, as and when we could: eg on climate change. We needed a narrative to go out to decent Russians after the collapse of the Russian invasion. <br /><br />Yes, many young Russians were pro war, but that was on the basis of a false narrative and rallying round the flag. We needed to get beyond that. <br /><br />There was a risk of provoking by language. Talk of an invasion might have meant that Putin calculated that he risked losing credibility if he did not invade. <br /><br />Lord Robertson was struck by the sheer incompetence of the war strategy. Had the Russians really though through what an invasion of Ukraine involved? Or was it one man’s decision? <br /><br />Joining NATO was a process which went through various calculated stages. NATO should carefully explain to Erdogan the price of a veto. <br /><br />As for Trump, Robertson had been trying to figure out what was in Putin’s mind, let alone Trump’s. But the invasion of Ukraine had, for a brief moment, united Democrats and Republicans. <br /><br />We were NOT insufficiently sensitive about the likely Russian reaction to NATO enlargement. As Secretary General, he had had 9 meetings with Putin, and the latter had never complained to him. And Putin himself had signed the NATO- Russia Council document. He was now busily engaged in rewriting history. <br /><br />There were serious worries about proliferation after the failure of Budapest guarantees. It had been a pragmatic decision at the time. Nobody except Liz Truss had yet said anything about going beyond the 23 February lines (though the actions of the UK government in general had been well-judged and proportionate). <br /><br />China could not be happy. The country had never recognised Crimea annexation, and was now entangled in a Putin-terms trade war with the US. There were major implications for the rest of the world, especially food. There could well be a movement towards some dirty compromise. <br /><br />Liddell Hart had reminded everyone that the enemy of today was the customer of tomorrow and the ally of the future. This should temper our response. <br /><br />The West had reacted very quickly and effectively to war crimes in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, so there were precedents. <br /><br />We needed strategic patience, and to recover the lost arts of arms control, dialogue(even in difficult circumstances) and trip wires: a renewed modus operandi.<br /><br />The consequences in Germany of Putin’s invasion had been remarkable: and vis a vis Sweden and Finland, Putin had achieved in 4 weeks what the Alliance had not achieved in 40 plus years.SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-91045553888939757602022-03-14T17:10:00.001+00:002022-04-12T17:12:46.487+01:00Turkey Under Erdogan: How a Country Turned from Democracy and the West<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdP0kJxLbTwHkH4Em9BsjhEJbWptIG5FKqGxFGgiCyCOw8-mdNwE2yLDGoyIeo6P6hjk8BHESrul4lg0KSVbXoT5wrAl_PjZlv33ezvdUpfI80xvpbGv2cCI9DJlXWLENNkFczq1JFfqCwtA8eVC3j5wGa2OFEPx9Gu3XChkBgtwGmG4T3D7KVUSy5fw/s1157/dimo%20book%20cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1157" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdP0kJxLbTwHkH4Em9BsjhEJbWptIG5FKqGxFGgiCyCOw8-mdNwE2yLDGoyIeo6P6hjk8BHESrul4lg0KSVbXoT5wrAl_PjZlv33ezvdUpfI80xvpbGv2cCI9DJlXWLENNkFczq1JFfqCwtA8eVC3j5wGa2OFEPx9Gu3XChkBgtwGmG4T3D7KVUSy5fw/s320/dimo%20book%20cover.jpg" width="221" /></a></div>SEESOX held its last hybrid event of the Hilary 2022 Term, taking its title from, and focusing on, Dimitar Bechev’s latest book. The event was chaired by Ezgi Başaran (St Antony’s College, Oxford) who introduced the book as a tour-de-force of events and critical junctures in the past two decades in Turkey, as the country succumbed to authoritarianism and nationalism, and as it further distanced itself from the West. The author and speaker Dimitar Bechev (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies (OSGA)) was accompanied by the discussants Mehmet Karlı (St Antony’s College, Oxford) and Kerem Öktem (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice). <br /><br />Bechev began by commenting on Turkey’s role as a critical player in the war in Ukraine. The Turkish government is currently stuck in the middle, given the tremendous economic challenges it is facing, the pressure from a united opposition, the discontent brewing among the Turkish society, and now a geopolitical crisis in its neighbourhood where it has robust connections to both parties. <br /><br />He then zoomed back from the current situation to talk about the evolution of Turkish foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. Turkey had reinvented itself from being an EU-applicant to a central player with connections throughout the Middle East, the Balkans and the Black Sea. Turkey had been very confident that it could shape its neighbourhood and its image, bringing together Islam, democratic experience, economic growth and a populist leadership style, until it discovered its limitations and faced a pushback. Despite the lessons learnt, Turkey still wants to influence its environment and to play a central role in the balance between the West, Russia and China. Turkey’s process of becoming an ambitious regional player as a result of domestic politics, geopolitics, and ideology, is one of the major themes in the book. <span><a name='more'></a></span>Another important theme in the book is the Turkish effort to democratize and the depressing story of de-democratization. Bechev reminded the audience of Erdoğan’s speech at St John’s College in 2004, where he talked about his ambitions to be an EU member state, efforts to resolve historic issues such as the Kurdish question and military interference in politics, and to strengthen Turkey’s democracy. Almost 20 years later, we are far from these aims, and for the past decade there has been a rigorous conversation in Turkey as to who is to blame. Did Erdoğan have a master plan in 2002 to hijack Turkey’s process of Europeanization and democratization and to install his own rule, or was it a story of contingency as a result of choices made along the way? Positioning himself on the latter side of the debate, Bechev pointed to several explanations as to why such a turn took place: 1) Erdoğan’s ambitious personality and willingness to stay in power, 2) The political structure in Turkey, with a polarized domestic political scene, a ‘winner takes it all mentality’ and a lack of checks and balances, 3) The EU capitalizing on this coalition of various forces, pushing for a change in Turkey through AKP’s wide range of followers, and 4) The role of nationalism and Erdoğan re-fashioning the idea of a strong state dominating society, even picking and using aspects of Kemalism in a way that suits his interests. <br /><br />Bechev ended his talk by highlighting the strengthening of the opposition as we approach the 2023 elections. He emphasized Turkey’s long history of democratic experience and pointed to parallels with Latin democracies that moved back and forth from democratic politics to forms of authoritarianism. He stated that the EU can still play a role in Turkey’s democratization as the Turkish economy is deeply embedded in the EU’s economy. <br /><br />Karlı pointed to the book’s skilfulness in describing the developments in Turkey’s foreign policy in a historical continuum. He then commented on the master plan vs. contingency debate by highlighting Erdoğan’s instincts to consolidate his power as the main motivator of his choices. He also talked about the changes to the legal system adopted during the first five years of AKP’s rule as well as the gap in the literature on the Gülenist movement. Öktem gave his personal reflections on the book, praising its sober tone and ability to weave a complex narrative of domestic and foreign policy aspects in an easily readable format. He then raised the question of what would be left of Erdoğan and what would constitute Erdoğanism in a post-Erdoğan era. Dimitar Bechev agreed with Karlı on the role of Erdoğan’s ambitious personality, and added that Erdoğan departed from the initial triumvirate organization of the AKP with Abdullah Gül and Bülent Arınç, during the Gezi protests, and established his own personalistic regime as early as 2014. He responded to Öktem’s question by stating that we can think of Erdoğanism as a symbolic legacy; in twenty years’ time it is likely that there will be a segment of the electorates using Erdoğan as a political symbol, referring to him as a ‘leader who made Turkey great’ or ‘your common man’s politician’. He added that some of the institutions he introduced might also linger on, despite the opposition’s promises to reinforce the parliamentary system. <br /><br />In the Q&A session a range of issues was explored, including the role of religion in securing the loyalty of Erdoğan’s electoral base, the conceptualization of democracy in the book, Turkey’s relations with Iran, and the impact of high inflation on Erdoğan’s survival prospects. <br /><br />Aslı Töre (St Antony’s College, Oxford)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-30858524035068667712022-02-28T14:18:00.001+00:002022-03-10T14:19:46.963+00:00Bosnia and Herzegovina: Has the international community lost the plot? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgU9wUFp-YfSi-wQHwv69G3mtr6vbt_rBXReHb6yMh3zbiE-rmJhrfs_ek8T6udodi8IgjOsNwsvvmwSIlQLDPOJKOdPG1LXWBFvL7FbHJ_iCPaNwpz_1dQ2L4OMXSMjByNSqWlOV84hM6cZQzKXWzmLCtQEYxAV4Vmz1WZ0XGIa8QxBHMCwFrR1llNbw=s600" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="600" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgU9wUFp-YfSi-wQHwv69G3mtr6vbt_rBXReHb6yMh3zbiE-rmJhrfs_ek8T6udodi8IgjOsNwsvvmwSIlQLDPOJKOdPG1LXWBFvL7FbHJ_iCPaNwpz_1dQ2L4OMXSMjByNSqWlOV84hM6cZQzKXWzmLCtQEYxAV4Vmz1WZ0XGIa8QxBHMCwFrR1llNbw=s320" width="320" /></a></div>On February 23 SEESOX held a panel discussion on recent political developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and the role of the international community. As indicated by moderator Jesse Barton Hronesova, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and Ca’ Foscari University, the panel took place amidst one of the largest political crises in B&H, whose constitutional framework is being challenged in at least two respects. These include the increasingly secessionist rhetoric by Bosnian Serb member of the B&H presidency, Milorad Dodik, but also the insistence for comprehensive electoral reform by ethnic Croat leaders, who argue that they are inadequately represented in the presidency, where the ethnic Croat member of the presidency is elected jointly by ethnic Croats and Bosniaks alike. <br /><br />The panel addressed at least four key aspects of the topic. The first one relates to the actions of local actors and what their long-term goals and strategies might be. The panelists expressed a joint concern about the lack of care among local leaders about the negative effects of ethnocentric rhetoric on B&H’s already fragile political structure. Jelena Dzankic, a part-time professor at the European University Institute, reminded the audience that B&H’s power-sharing constitutional framework has been vulnerable to ethnic entrepreneurs from all three dominant ethnicities ever since its creation with the Dayton Agreement in 1995. Nebojsa Vladisavljevic, a professor at the University of Belgrade, pointed out that ethnocentric leaders have their own vested interests in preserving B&H in its current format, given the expected lack of international tolerance for any unilateral action on the ground, but also because their political fortunes have already thrived despite – and perhaps because of – B&H’s power-sharing structure. Yet, Jasmin Hanic, an assistant professor at the Sarajevo School of Science and Technology, expressed his concern about the recent lack of cooperativeness by ethnic Serb actors even in legislative areas where they have traditionally acted in a constructive fashion. <span><a name='more'></a></span>Moreover, all speakers acknowledged the increasing autonomy of local leaders from the High Representative and other international actors, which carries a range of risks but also opportunities. In this context, Dejan Jovic, a professor at the University of Zagreb, highlighted that all domestic actors, including ethnic Croat politicians, have a legitimate right to articulate their political demands, as long as this is done through the institutions of the system. <br /><br />The second key area of discussion relates to the role of the two “kin states” surrounding B&H: Croatia and Serbia. In this regard, Prof. Jovic problematised the increasing involvement of Croatian politicians, not least in the European Parliament, in the electoral reform debate, as well as Croatian President Zoran Milanovic’s opposition to international sanctions against Mr. Dodik’s unilateral actions. As for Serbia, Prof. Vladisavljevic highlighted the competing interests of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who is seeking to keep some distance from Mr. Dodik to avoid alienating the West, while at the same time using their relatively close relationship to score political points among his own voters. <br /><br />The third key component of the panel addressed the past and current role of the West. While cautiously optimistic about the increasing autonomy of local actors, the speakers also warned against the dangers of excessive passivity among international actors, with Prof. Hanic describing former High Representative Valentin Inzko as a “sleeping beauty”. Prof. Vladisavljevic remarked that the growingly hands-off approach by the EU is a broader policy failure by Brussels towards the region, especially through its “stabilitocratic” tolerance for less-than-democratic leaders. Prof. Dzankic noted that more clarity is needed about the exact division of roles between international actors, as many of them have overstepped or misused their formal mandate. <br /><br />Finally, the speakers also tackled the role of Russia. Prof. Jovic argued that the Western Balkans Six are, in fact, a “Western Balkans Two” in the eyes of Russia, which is following developments in Serbia and B&H very closely, as Putin’s relationship with Belgrade has traditionally been an important element of his foreign policy agenda. Prof. Vladisavljevic added that events in Ukraine might draw more attention to B&H without necessarily posing a threat to B&H’s survival, as Mr. Vucic and Mr. Dodik have already shown their ability to react to changing external circumstances and adapt them to their presumed long-term interest of avoiding full-blown escalation in B&H. <br /><br />Kristijan Fidanovski (Department of Social Policy and Intervention, University of Oxford) SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-90482157657266853472022-02-21T13:39:00.004+00:002022-03-10T14:20:01.959+00:00Venizelos: Crete to Athens, The Great War and schism, Peace Conference and after<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNJRcIhtMG8J6sgj0i6gSXjVQTUvEbkE8XYgv75j8DEl8ITqL-NYPQeUm379dwVue2QZtCZz1ZFeyfMMYkQ_D8AUtkoOsT3jTJTG6WRehixNKHaUJW2ZY1MTUFJ-XnLHtw8R-67oFWE82DiJP19A6vJeRm2reglsTwKbMv-Jtz49UFU29uDe-7t-N_ww=s1551" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1551" data-original-width="1000" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNJRcIhtMG8J6sgj0i6gSXjVQTUvEbkE8XYgv75j8DEl8ITqL-NYPQeUm379dwVue2QZtCZz1ZFeyfMMYkQ_D8AUtkoOsT3jTJTG6WRehixNKHaUJW2ZY1MTUFJ-XnLHtw8R-67oFWE82DiJP19A6vJeRm2reglsTwKbMv-Jtz49UFU29uDe-7t-N_ww=s320" width="206" /></a></div>Dr Michael Llewellyn Smith spoke on this theme at a SEESOX seminar on 16 February, on the occasion of the publication of the first volume of his biography Venizelos: the making of a Greek statesman 1864 to 1914, and the reissue of Ionian Vision. The discussants were Othon Anastasakis, Director of SEESOX, Marilena Anastasopoulou (St Antony’s and Worcester), and Helen Katsiadakis (Academy of Athens). David Madden (St Antony’s) chaired. <br /><br /> Michael Llewellyn Smith noted that 2022 was the 100th anniversary of the Asia Minor catastrophe and interest in Greece was already building up on Venizelos, the disaster, and in particular on who was to blame. He would concentrate on two themes: the early career of Venizelos, particularly in Crete; and the Asia Minor catastrophe. He would seek to answer three questions: what of Venizelos’s time in Crete bore on his later career? When did Venizelos first consider venturing into Asia Minor? And what caused the catastrophe? <br /><br />Venizelos was Cretan in his bones: it was 45 years before his definitive move to Athens. And Crete was his apprenticeship in politics as a deputy in the Cretan assembly, in journalism, and in legal practice: the last in particular bringing him into contact with other groups (Muslims, Jews etc). He inherited Greek citizenship from his father, who was slow to allow him to attend Athens university, where he studied law, enlarged his friendships and gained the legal knowledge which allowed him to write two Cretan constitutions, and later a Greek Constitution. Venizelos was in too much of a hurry to master Cretan politics: but his clash with Prince George, the High Commissioner of the great powers, got him noticed in Athens, especially by the junior officers; and their take-over in 1909 took him to Athens and opened the way for the rapid development of his political career. A massive majority allowed his new constitution, an alliance with Serbia and Bulgaria in the Balkan Wars, and the beginnings of a focus on Greater Greece. <span><a name='more'></a></span>Thrace was clearly in his sights, but Asia Minor was unattainable at that stage. It was the Great War, and the Paris Peace Conference which opened that door. The Greek landing produced the first problems, with loss of life. The writing was already on the wall in 1920, with the growing strength of Kemal and reluctance of Allies to support. Venizelos lost the 1920 elections, and Gounaris took over, confronting critical difficulties. <br /><br />There were three factors for the 1922 catastrophe: the finances of the Greek state were inadequate; geography and ethnography were against Greece; and the Allies, except the UK, gave no help – and the UK lacked sufficient power or interest to give Greece sufficient support in Anatolia. <br /><br />Kemal was able to harness national feeling to repel the Greek invaders. <br /><br />Othon Anastasakis focussed on the dramatic political circumstances surrounding the life of Venizelos; his building up of Crete as a centre of national importance; his leadership skills as visionary, realistic, responsible; and his brand, combining radical and antagonistic, insider and outsider, nationalist and modernising. Why did he not use his foreign diplomacy skills with domestic opponents!? <br /><br />Marilena Anastasopoulou described the book as a rare attempt to provide a rounded picture of Venizelos. But he was and remained a divisive figure. He favoured both territorial expansion and modernisation. How consistent were these? <br /><br />Helen Katsiadakis focussed on his avid reading and innate intellectual capacity – he had an astounding breadth of knowledge for someone who never travelled beyond Athens until 1910. This gave him great confidence and ability to gain the trust of representatives of the great powers: almost arrogance because he felt he could take on anyone and win. <br /><br />Michael Lewellyn Smith added that he was divisive personally as he found it difficult to acknowledge anyone else as his superior. But he also sought be on side of those he saw as the Great War winners. He wanted Asia Minor to become a model European modern state. <br /><br />The Q&A session developed some of these themes further: divisions in the Entente, role of Lloyd George, the state of turmoil in Europe and Ireland, some voices in Greece pro Central Powers, Venizelos not a Republican etc. <p></p><p>David Madden (Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford) <br /></p>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-22907401129338188962022-02-14T15:56:00.002+00:002022-04-14T18:16:39.074+01:00Crisis, reform and the way forward in Greece - A turbulent decade’<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]-->On 09 February, SEESOX hosted the second seminar of its 20th Anniversary Seminar Series. It addressed the issue of reform, focusing on Greece, a country that agonized over this notion during the recent years of its protracted economic crisis. The seminar built on the recently published book ‘Crisis, Reform and the Way Forward in Greece - A Turbulent Decade’ and the panel included Jens Bastian (Independent Economic Analyst, based in Athens), Michael Mitsopoulos (Hellenic Federation of Business) and Calliope Spanou (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens). It was chaired by Othon Anastasakis. <br /><br />Calliope Spanou, the editor of the book, began by inviting us to move beyond the narrative of the economic crisis and the problems it exposed in Greece, and take a look at the wider challenges that lie ahead. She first explained the rationale behind the book and how it was conceived. The aim was to assess the extent to which the protracted crisis in Greece revealed (or not) resilience and led to deeper changes. In this context the book offers a reflection on the dialectics of stability and change and of external pressure and domestic agency. The perspective is forward looking: to examine the degree to which Greece is currently better equipped to deal with a global sociopolitical environment characterized by consecutive crises, the ‘new normal’ as the book’s authors call it. <br /><br />In the remainder of her presentation, Spanou focused on public administration to illustrate (the limits of) Greece’s reform capacity, namely, its ability to endogenously set reform goals and to design and implement corresponding policies. Public administration in Greece, characterized by a series of structural problems, has been held responsible for many of Greece’s ills. Thus, horizontal reform became necessary. Making more specific reference to two critical domains, i.e. 1) budgeting, and 2) human resources management she concluded that the results were unbalanced. Regarding budgeting a coherent management system was introduced, and new instruments were developed under the auspices of the general accounting office of the Ministry of Finance, which assumed a central role. Overall, fiscal transparency was strengthened. Regarding human resources management, new digital tools were put in place and the whole technological infrastructure was upgraded with positive results. However, reform fell short in bringing the needed changes. Even less efficient was reform in terms of policy substance. In this domain, the status quo was largely reproduced. For instance, mobility remained individually centered and not in the interest of the service, while depoliticization was not implemented. The more recent appointment of ‘permanent secretaries’, who sit across the politically appointed general secretaries in Ministries, represents a potentially important step towards strengthening the civil service but will have to be tested against future government alternation. <span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Michael Mitsopoulos focused his talk on structural changes that have come as a result of reforms and which can be game changers going forward alongside more sustainable growth models. In particular, he focused on spatial planning, licensing and auditing; all of these had played a negative role in the past by preventing investment going to the productive parts of the economy. In recent years, a big reform in spatial planning was implemented with the aim of designating land uses to more than 60% of the country. At the same time, uncertainties and conflicts in the design of the spatial law machinery were removed. This was complemented by a simplified licensing environment and more efficient audits. At a period when funds are being made more available in Greece in the context of NextGenerationEU, those changes could facilitate the restoration of the productive capacity of the country through the growth of the private sector. At the same time, the easier it is to start a business, the higher is also the possibility of failure. In recent years a comprehensive framework for a second chance was established in Greece, with the aim of dealing with possible business failure. Taken together, these changes could, in Mitsopoulos’ view, provide significant opportunities for Greece in the future, especially if coupled with a strong agenda for improving corporate governance. <br /><br />Jens Bastian focused on the sustainability of the reform process in Greece. He explored how the reform debate has developed in recent years, drawing attention to continuity but also to change, with the implication of new agents, as well as the engagement with new policy areas. In his presentation he made reference to three issues. The first is the narrative of green finance in Greece. One institution that is proactively participating in this debate is the Central Bank of Greece. It is providing policy advice on what needs to be done through its newly established climate change sustainability center. The aim is twofold, to ensure that climate related risks are incorporated in banks’ risk assessments, and to contribute to the framing of climate change reforms in Greece- all within its operational mandate. The second issue concerns the country’s potential for recovery in the post covid 19 environment. Greece is going to be a major beneficiary of the NextGenerationEU program. In the national plan submitted by the Greek government, almost 40% of the allocation of funding concerns reform initiatives targeting climate change. The government’s plan was informed by a report commissioned from the economist C. Pissaridis (LSE). Given Greece’s successful absorption of EU funds in the 2014-2020 period and the agenda of the current national plan, Bastian was “guardedly optimistic” regarding Greece’s ability to implement the significant volume of funding that is expected to flow to the country. However, he was more pessimistic in terms of the country’s demographic outlook, which will in the next few years compel Greece to begin a discussion on a number of other reforms that appear unpopular at the moment, e.g. if the legal retirement age has to be increased again. <p></p><p>Manolis Pratsinakis (SEESOX Onassis Fellow)<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white none repeat scroll 0% 0%; color: black; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span class="msoIns"><ins cite="mailto:Julie%20Adams" datetime="2022-04-13T15:52"></ins></span><span class="msoDel"><del cite="mailto:Julie%20Adams" datetime="2022-04-13T15:52"></del></span></span>
</p>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-86370493328273360902022-02-07T13:31:00.001+00:002022-03-14T13:35:08.906+00:00What’s in a name? The classical Greek and Jewish diasporas and their implications for the present<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjw96T7ol6YQ0kQ7b-aG7GOhGvpKtnFNT-A5t5bDa8XOc1iHPd-gHe6S71H9XlrPPLkEIvZLS9988djT9iiLryMrOdp0zDr3DxLTGZ3R4shgwPn87XFAaV_LmpjpvP-ChAeb4Z3nXgOXWVT3EvlK_NdiSG8IGwebukZQyRVYuzT4w6oxtO-R4Rm_Dp9w=s655" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="437" data-original-width="655" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjw96T7ol6YQ0kQ7b-aG7GOhGvpKtnFNT-A5t5bDa8XOc1iHPd-gHe6S71H9XlrPPLkEIvZLS9988djT9iiLryMrOdp0zDr3DxLTGZ3R4shgwPn87XFAaV_LmpjpvP-ChAeb4Z3nXgOXWVT3EvlK_NdiSG8IGwebukZQyRVYuzT4w6oxtO-R4Rm_Dp9w=s320" width="320" /></a></div>On 2 February 2022, SEESOX hosted the first of its 20th Anniversary Seminar Series, as an online webinar, on What’s in a name? The classical Greek and Jewish diasporas and their implications for the present. It consisted of a conversation between Robin Cohen (Kellogg College, Oxford) and Manolis Pratsinakis (Centre on Migration Policy and Society – COMPAS). The session was chaired by Renee Hirschon (St Peter’s College, Oxford), with Othon Anastasakis (SEESOX) as co-chair.<br /><br />Cohen began by pointing out the timeline of the classical Jewish diaspora, beginning with the destruction of Solomon’s temple in 568 BCE, through the founding, in 332 BCE, of Alexandria - a city whose Jews constituted more than a third of the population. The term “diaspora” had been attributed to the translators of the Bible into Greek in the Third Century BCE. He pointed out that, at the time, the Greek colonies in the Mediterranean and Black Sea broadly overlapped with the concentrations of the Jewish diaspora. <br /><br />Noting that Thucydides had used the term “diaspora” with reference to dispersions of Greek populations, he wondered how distinct the two diasporas – Jewish and Greek – actually were. He felt that the Jewish diaspora often tended to be mischaracterised as linked solely to the dispersion after the destruction of Solomon’s Temple; in fact, while 25% of Jews went to Babylon, 75% remained in Judea and many later went elsewhere - to Alexandria and to the rest of the Mediterranean. Thus, the Jewish diaspora was in part involuntary and in part voluntary, thus resembling the Greek diaspora to some extent. The term “Greek civilisation” was an 18th Century invention; could diaspora likewise be used retrospectively?<span><a name='more'></a></span>Pratsinakis wondered whether the study of the past helped to interpret and inform the study of the present and vice versa. He started his talk with reference to Xenophon’s famous work Anabasis, to highlight how, in the classical period, the Greek world stretched across the coastal lines of the Black sea and the Mediterranean. At that time sea itself was associated with “Greekness”. A network of some 280 Hellenic settlements, composed of migrants from the Greek city states, had formed for a variety of reasons, often as a result of private initiative, rather than organised by the state. Migration was both voluntary but also enforced. As he noted, being Greek seems to have implied facing the possibility of displacement at some time. <br /><br />Although the term “diaspora” was employed by Thucydides, his use differed from the term’s current understanding. Pratsinakis defined a diaspora as any population that exhibits dispersion, a separate identity, and some orientation towards a homeland (in the case of the Hellenic colonies, the city state), This is a definition that departs from those understandings of the term that link it closely to a certain interpretation of Jewish history. If such a definition is used retrospectively to describe the Greek world in classical time one would have to speak of a polycentric diaspora. <br /><br />Hirschon noted that terminology is politically complex, citing the reluctance of some to talk of an Armenian genocide alongside the Jewish genocide; or the distinction to be made between colonisation and diaspora. <br /><br />Cohen wondered how far the link to an undefined homeland was not also true of the Jewish diaspora, at least prior to the foundation of the State of Israel. Perhaps it was better to think of a link to “place” rather than a country or a state - Jerusalem, or Athens? He warned against understanding a particular word, whether genocide or diaspora, as a concept frozen by one particular interpretation based on one particular historical context. <br /><br />Pratsinakis suggested that diaspora studies constituted a subset of the study of transnational communities; the latter included diaspora studies, but the two were not coterminous. <br /><br />Cohen concluded that the term “diaspora” implied a degree of continuity over several generations, also having a network aspect. <br /><br />In the Q & A, a range of issues was explored. These included:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Why some countries preferred to use the term “expats” rather than “diaspora;</li><li>The changing nature – and geographical distribution - of the Greek and Jewish diasporas over the centuries;</li><li>The extent to which migrants’ success stories reflected the fact that migrants may be more adventurous, or perhaps rather that the successful advertise their achievements, while those who fail don’t;</li><li>The linkage between diaspora and crisis – with crisis potentially creating a basis for group mobilisation and identification;</li><li>The more temporary nature of immigration in recent times, as compared to the past, when travelling conditions were more difficult, as well as the link between status and readiness to return;</li><li>Whether the concept of diaspora is now outdated, in a period of globalisation;</li><li>The relationship between different diasporas in one host country, and between diasporas and their homeland governments.</li></ul>Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX Associate and Blog Editor)SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3336313469278065018.post-45355029852879347212021-12-06T12:44:00.004+00:002022-01-04T16:10:49.453+00:00'Open Balkan’ and/or European integration: An answer or a diversion? <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6Ggf0Wc-_vv2qg3QC9F3nlLQ_dOe9VAa_Tun9ga0OIdJU4DKMcbbHWHC1PbNWx7qccs_MsgXT3p3nRqWDqU_cV2iUpsfb2DHK6biO11vhz7NzMAymrFkimUz2v7uXquBgY_fTsJwu_UtP8mphNDX47sq2M1G-JXozPw-jV1fKxwrruMpQYukBgJEriA=s1268" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="848" data-original-width="1268" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj6Ggf0Wc-_vv2qg3QC9F3nlLQ_dOe9VAa_Tun9ga0OIdJU4DKMcbbHWHC1PbNWx7qccs_MsgXT3p3nRqWDqU_cV2iUpsfb2DHK6biO11vhz7NzMAymrFkimUz2v7uXquBgY_fTsJwu_UtP8mphNDX47sq2M1G-JXozPw-jV1fKxwrruMpQYukBgJEriA=s320" width="320" /></a></div><p>On 2 December 2021 SEESOX in cooperation with The European University of Tirana hosted an online panel discussion on the European and regional state of play of the Western Balkan countries entitled: “Open Balkans and/or European integration: An answer or a diversion?” Speakers included Albin Kurti, Prime Minister of Kosovo, Dritan Abazovic, Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro, Zef Mazi, Albania’s Chief Negotiator to EU, and with Jessie Barton Hronesova, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, as a discussant. Othon Anastasakis, Director of SEESOX and Belina Budini, Dean of Faculty of Humanities, Education and Liberal Arts at European University of Tirana, co-chaired the event. <br /><br />In his introduction Othon Anastasakis pointed out that the Open Balkans Initiative, like many other initiatives in the past, is based on ambitious principles of open borders, labor mobility and integrated regional market. But as many things in the region, it has also generated criticism and the mere fact that some countries are in and some countries not, is a testimony of the ambivalence of the project; some see it as an asset, while others as a liability and in competition with the European integration process. <br /><br />Belina Budini, in her introduction of the topic pointed out that the Open Balkan Initiative, aiming at the creation of an open regional market, and signed by Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia, unavoidably raises the issue of compatibility with the European integration of the Western Balkan countries and their accession to the EU. Even though the project is represented as a call for action in response to the delay in obtaining EU membership, it has also attracted criticism on the grounds that it makes the region more vulnerable. </p><p><span></span></p><a name='more'></a>Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti argued that as regards regional cooperation the Western Balkan countries have a lot to gain by removing barriers to trade and travel, work and business, but they should also be cautious. On that, he pointed out that any regional initiative must be within the EU agenda and EU rules, and bring the aspiring countries closer to EU membership. Mr Kurti emphasized that Kosovo regards the Berlin Process as the only inclusive umbrella framework under which there are other projects including that of the Common Regional Market. He declared that his country would continue to support the Berlin Process as a platform where all WB countries are equally represented and as a complementary process to the EU integration. In this direction, he had proposed a new framework for regional cooperation, called Southeast European Free Trade Agreement (SEFTA) which intends to strengthen the common regional market by removing obstacles which impede progress and by introducing independent institutions which can impartially and professionally solve disputes among partners. In that spirit, he stated that Kosovo does not support other initiatives outside the Berlin Process, the Western Balkans Common Regional Market and the EU agenda; the EU, PM Kurti ended, is the most important political project of peace and prosperity, and the most distinguished historical process since Second World War. <br /><br />Deputy Prime Minister of Montenegro, Dritan Abazovic argued that Montenegro, like other Balkan states, faced several challenges, including corruption, state capture or problems with the rule of law and emphasized the need for democratic politics. On the Open Balkan he argued that Montenegro’s goal is to join the EU and that they are not looking for a substitute to it. However, he also mentioned that the Open Balkan initiative doesn’t have any intention to antagonize the goal of integration, and could be good if we consider the benefits related to the mobility of the people and business. Mr. Abazovic also pointed out that the more restricted the borders are, the more cross-border corruption exists, and concluded by appealing to stop being afraid of each other in the region and to aim at cooperation as the only way to go forward against the drawbacks of nationalism, polarization and democratic backsliding. <br /><br />Albania’s Chief Negotiator to the European Union, Zef Mazi, started by saying that the title of the panel implies a black and white approach, in favor or against the Open Balkan, whereas in his opinion this should not be a binary issue. The top strategic priority for Albania is the EU accession where Mr Mazi pointed to the judiciary reform progress of his country as a record against corruption and organized crime, and mentioned how Albania has been a reliable partner of the EU, in line with the EU foreign policy. He ended by laying his hopes that by the end of the year, there would be good news on the accession path and he was cautiously optimistic about the prospects. <br /><br />Discussant Jessie Hronesova highlighted some pros and cons of the Open Balkan initiative, starting with some benefits that this project can potentially bring to the region. First in economic terms, the WB-6 economies a region of nearly 18 million people, is comprised by extremely small markets, the GDP of which is jointly the size of the three Baltic countries, or Slovakia. Anything that creates open borders, and facilitates the flow of capital and people is good for the region. On the other hand, Jessie Barton Hronesova listed a number of potentially problematic aspects of the initiative, including duplication of existing efforts through the Berlin Process, dubious motivation for its launch that potentially covers bigger political issues, the problematic leadership of Serbia given the regional fear of its domination, and the lack of any fine-print detail about how to implement open borders in a situation of continued non-recognition of Kosovo by Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, among other issues. However, she concluded that any regional initiative is worth exploring and that abstention has rarely been productive in making progress. <br /><br />This event was in cooperation with the European University in Tirana. <br /><br />Belina Budini (European University in Tirana and St Antony's College, Oxford)<br /><p></p>SEESOXhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10499776566187590020noreply@blogger.com0