Rethinking the Eastern Mediterranean in a volatile world

On 21 November, the European Studies Centre (ESC), in collaboration with the Southeast European Studies Centre at Oxford (SEESOX), held a seminar on the opportunities and challenges of cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

The region has gained increasing importance as the European Union (EU) seeks to meet its energy demands following the near-total ban on the import of Russian gas after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Simultaneously, the region's instability, coupled with a multitude of global crises—including climate change, trade wars, US-China competition, and inflation—makes the Eastern Mediterranean an integral part of the geopolitical landscape, influencing both regional and global power dynamics.

The seminar, held on 21 November, is part of a broader effort by ESC/SEESOX to address these issues through a special project, which is expected to launch in March 2024. The speakers included Alexander Clarkson (King’s College London), Costandinos Filis (American College of Greece), Manal Shahabi (St. Antony’s College, Oxford), and Galip Dalay (St. Antony’s College, Oxford). ESC Director Othon Anastasakis chaired the seminar.Clarkson discussed the EU’s approach to its neighborhood, focusing specifically on the Eastern Mediterranean. He argued that EU enlargement has been a process of "de-peripheralization," where states once considered peripheral in geopolitical terms have become central players. Following Greece and Cyprus’s accession to the EU, the Eastern Mediterranean became part of the EU’s expanding Single Market and Schengen border system. Clarkson highlighted that the EU manages its relations within the region differently, with a Deep and Comprehensive Partnership with Tunisia and Turkey, Association and Free Trade Agreements with Israel, and Neighbourhood, Development, and International Cooperation Instruments (NDICIs) with Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority. Given the EU’s geographical scope and the variety of factors influencing neighboring states' stability, how the EU addresses issues with one neighboring state can affect its approach to another in a different geographic area. As a result, the challenge for the EU’s engagement in the region is that the Eastern Mediterranean represents both a center and a periphery.

Shahabi discussed the region’s geoeconomics and its importance for energy connectivity between the EU and the Middle East. She noted that the Eastern Mediterranean gained prominence following the discovery of gas in the Levantine Basin. However, this discovery has led to maritime border disputes among the region's countries, which have hindered cooperation on gas exploration, refinement, and export. The region’s reserves are estimated at 7-8% of global gas reserves, with Egypt producing the majority of liquefied natural gas, followed by Greece, Israel, and Turkey at much lower levels. A similar trend applies to the production of dry natural gas. Shahabi argued that offshore gas discoveries have provided vital revenue for governments facing political instability, such as Egypt, while inland countries like Jordan have sought access to these energy sources. She further emphasized the importance of these developments for Europe, not only for gas supplies but also for electricity, with undersea cables connecting Israel, Cyprus, and Greece. Additionally, the European energy market may benefit from diversification through investments in hydrogen fuel production by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states.

Filis discussed Greece’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean and regional dynamics following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He noted that migration challenges are a key concern in the region and must be addressed in the context of climate change and Europe’s ageing population. On Greek-Turkish relations, Filis argued that both countries are exercising restraint. Turkey has refrained from violating Greek airspace or making inflammatory statements, while Greece has maintained a moratorium on hostile rhetoric. Furthermore, President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis have met three times in the past five months to pursue a “Positive Agenda.” An agreement on migration, a longstanding issue between the two nations, is also expected. Filis suggested that the war in Ukraine has profoundly impacted regional geopolitics, revealing that even the US’s close regional partners have opted for neutrality rather than siding with either Russia or the US. In addition to Russia’s military presence in the region, many countries depend on Russian grain, such as in the bilateral trade agreement between Moscow and Cairo. Filis argued that these factors, along with the US and Israel’s reluctance to address the Palestinian issue, have created further uncertainties in the region.

Dalay focused on Turkey’s role in the region and the evolving parameters of regional security in the Eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. He noted that the region is undergoing a period of de-escalation and normalization. The Abraham Accords and the rapprochement between Turkey and Israel—particularly in the Caucasus—are significant developments, partly aimed at countering Iranian influence. The second reset in the region concerns Turkish-Greek relations, with Turkey seeking to de-escalate tensions with other regional and external actors, such as the UAE and Egypt, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Libya’s Government of National Accord in November 2019. Dalay suggested that Turkey’s strategy has been to reduce the multilateral crisis with regional countries to a bilateral issue with Greece, which has helped ease tensions. However, he argued that while the parties have de-escalated, they have not resolved the core points of contention. The failure of the East-Med pipeline project has been a major factor in this reduced tension. Dalay proposed that addressing the Palestinian issue during this de-escalation phase could help establish a more stable regional cooperation framework. He concluded that the region’s future will be shaped by great power competition, particularly between the US and Russia, and by the pragmatism of Turkey-EU relations.

The question-and-answer session further explored the implications of the green transition for the region, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Greek-Turkish relations, and the influence of great power politics.

by Alban Dafa (ESC Research Assistant)