Greece in the Euro: Economic delinquency or system failure?

Adam Bennett (SEESOX Associate; Academic Visitor, St Antony’s College, Oxford)

On November 26, Eleni Panagiotarea, research fellow of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy in Athens, returned to Oxford (for the first time since completing her PhD) to reflect on the predicament of Greece and the Euro at a SEESOX seminar in the European Studies Centre (ESC). Greece and the Euro, the Euro, and Greece – separately and together – have been recurring topics of debate at the ESC ever since the onset of the Eurozone crisis. The experience of Greece, at the bluntest end of this economic earthquake, encapsulates dramatically many of the dilemmas and stresses that have rocked the currency union. As Eleni made clear in her presentation, despite the declarations of victory from the ECB and ESM, this sorry saga is not yet over.

The seminar was held at an unusually timely juncture, with the IMF (as lead player of the troika) poised to undertake the sixth review of the Extended Fund Arrangement, amid calls from some quarters that conditions now permit an early end to this arrangement (currently scheduled to expire in March 2016), making this potentially the last review and the last dose of the hated conditionality. With the European funding component of the Troika’s package coming to an end anyway in December, and with Ireland and Portugal already out of the clutches of the IMF, there was an eagerness in Greece to graduate (to use an IMF term) from its program. But was Greece really ready to do this?

My Child: When parents of LGBTs in Turkey speak out

Funda Ustek (Post-doctoral Researcher, Department of Sociology, Goldsmiths, University of London)

On 28 November 2014, Can Candan’s multi-award winning documentary “My Child” featuring the parents of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) individuals in Turkey was screened at SEESOX with the participation of the director Can Candan, co-producer H. Metehan Ozkan and parent Sema Yakar. The documentary takes us through the journey of the parents of LGBT individuals as they are intimately sharing their experiences of what it means to be parents, family, activists in a conservative, blatantly homophobic and transphobic society. 

25 years of transition in Central and Eastern Europe and its impact on the economy

Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX Associate; Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)

On 18 November, Rainer Muenz, Head of Research at Erste Bank, Vienna, gave a seminar, convened jointly by ESC and SEESOX, “On the doorstep between Brussels and Moscow”, looking at the economic prospects for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe – new Member States and candidates. He delivered a master class in clarity and concision, marshalling complex data sets to render his thinking easily accessible to all.

He began by remarking that there was snow on economic expectations – how should we interpret this? His conclusion was far from reassuring. The CEE countries could, pre-crisis, expect their growth differential against western Europe to allow their GDP to converge to the EU average within two to three generations; post-crisis, with a much lower growth differential on current trends, convergence to the EU average will take a lifetime.

The crisis in Greece and Southern Europe: A Whodunnit

David Madden (SEESOX Associate; Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)

Professor Loukas Tsoukalis spoke on this subject at SEESOX on 14 November. He spoke mainly about Greece as a catalyst in the crisis: and also about Italy, Spain and Portugal (and Ireland as an honorary member of the Southern European group): less about Cyprus, where the main problem had been over-exposure of Cypriot banks to Greek government debt.

Although a whodunnit, there was not yet a happy ending in sight. The worst economic crisis since WW2 would continue to have profound effects, and shake integration projects. The series of matryoshka dolls got uglier: the bursting of the biggest international bubble since 1929, a systemic crisis of the Eurozone (a currency without a state), and national failures of unsustainable economic models and dysfunctional political systems.

Reflections on Turkey between two elections

Melis Evcimik (St Antony's College, Oxford)

On 21st May, Gamon McLellan (SOAS Near and Middle East Department) presented a talk on Turkey, following the local government elections on 30th March and looking ahead to the first direct election of a president in August and the parliamentary general election due in June 2015. The session was chaired by Dr. Anastasakis. Since 13 May, McLellan said, Turkey had been in mourning for the 301 victims of the mining disaster at Soma, in Manisa province, raising questions about industrial safety and how the government had discharged its responsibilities. European headlines had illustrated how the disaster had given fresh ammunition to European opponents of Turkey’s EU membership. Safety and working conditions at the mine had been atrocious, and an opposition parliamentary motion in October 2013 demanding an investigation into the safety at the mine had been defeated by the ruling AK Party majority. The government’s position had not been helped by the Prime Minister’s press conference in Soma, or by the videos apparently showing assaults on and insults against members of the traumatized community during Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s walk-about there, with security forces using tear gas and water cannon and eventually closing the town to outsiders.

After the elections: Serbia on its European path

David Madden (Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)

The Serbian Ambassador in London, Dr Ognjen Pribicevic, spoke on the above subject at SEESOX on 12 May. David Madden chaired. The Ambassador summarised the outcome of the March elections. The Serbian Progressive Party had won almost 50% of the vote, and 167/250 seats in Parliament. The party leader, Vucic, was now Prime Minister. There was no mathematical necessity for a coalition, but Vucic had chosen the former PM and leader of the Socialist Party, Dacic, to be Foreign Minister. Not one MP was anti-EU. This was probably unique in Europe. The other key event was the opening of EU accession talks on 21 January.

The number one issue was the economy. Unemployment was about 25%, the public sector was over-sized leading to budgetary problems, and although a firm – and popular - start had been made in fighting organised crime and corruption, this remained a problem. The strategy was to begin with austerity with a 10% cut in public salaries (with no action on pensions yet); and then to introduce new laws on labour relations, encouraging entrepreneurs and FDI. In June there would be laws to simplify licensing requirements, not least to reduce the scope for corruption. On cooperation with neighbours, he highlighted Vucic‘s visit to Sarajevo on 13 May, and continuing work on implementation and extension of the Brussels Agreements. On bilateral relations with the UK, he emphasised the new phase, with particular emphasis on trade, investment, culture and the history of friendship and personal contacts. Today’s Serbia was a country of pop and folk festivals, tourism, good food etc: a member of the European family, and a country in transition.

The Lost Sandžak: The forgotten region of Serbia and Montenegro

David Madden (Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)

On 10 February, Kenneth Morrison and Elizabeth Roberts gave a seminar at SEESOX with the above title, to mark the appearance of their book “The Sandzak: A History”. David Madden chaired. Kenneth set the scene for the undertaking: the first detailed history written in English. Since the Sandzak was not a state or autonomous entity, it had no archives. It was terra incognita: but a unique political and cultural space.

Elizabeth set out the history up to 1918. The Sandžak was a small region with changing borders and regular population shift. There was a mixed Orthodox/Moslem population (currently roughly 32%/60%). Its network of interconnecting river valleys made it a transit route (for trade, travel, and armies) though the mountains. These factors brought wealth at times but also misery e.g. during the Ottoman/Hapsburg wars of the 17th and 18th centuries. One constant was that this small wedge of territory provided a vital connecting corridor between Istanbul and the frontier provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while for Vienna it stood in the way of the coming together of Serbia and Montenegro. The Sandžak gained heightened importance, and attracted increased outside attention in the period between the 1878 Congress of Berlin and the 1912/1913 Balkan Wars. Austria-Hungary, having occupied Bosnia and Herzegovina under the terms of the Berlin Treaty, chose merely to garrison the Sandžak while leaving it under Ottoman administration. When Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1908 they sought to blunt international protests at Vienna’s expansionism by withdrawing their garrisons from the Sandžak, allowing the territory to revert to full Ottoman control. At the same time the Austrian Foreign Minister, Alois von Aehrenthal, was able to allay the misgivings of the military hawks over the Ottomans’ inability to resist Serbian and Montenegrin aggrandisement by arguing that Vienna should focus on subjugating Serbia rather than seeking to bolster their presence in the Sandžak. Ironically Vienna’s decision, which took no account of continuing Ottoman decline, allowed Serbia and Montenegro to gain a common border when they defeated the Ottomans in the ensuing Balkan War of 1912. One of the cardinal principles of Austria-Hungary’s policy in the Balkans had been undermined; Serbian nationalism had been strengthened rather than tamed.