The Conference Organising Committee: Rumena Filipova, Ivo Gruev, Ivaylo Iadjiev, and Stanislava Topouzova
On Wednesday, December 3rd 2014, the South East European Studies at Oxford (SEESOX) programme at the European Studies Centre (ESC), University of Oxford, hosted the first annual Oxford – Bulgaria Conference. The Conference, 'Critical Juncture? Bulgaria after the Snap Poll: Change and Continuity in Politics, Foreign Policy, and the Economy After the 2014 Elections’, was held in the immediate aftermath of the Bulgarian parliamentary elections on October 5th, at a time when Bulgaria faced a period of deep reflection on future reforms in the country. The Conference facilitated three specialised panels in the fields of international relations, domestic politics, and energy and economy, and included discussions on core topics of concern, including: the challenge of devising a coherent foreign policy, the outcome of the parliamentary elections, the role of civil society movements in Bulgaria, and the salience of structural and legal reforms in the energy sector. Over the course of the day, researchers, practitioners, professors, and experts alike, assembled together to incisively examine the core issues presented in each panel.
Reporting on what's happening at SEESOX, the topics being discussed, the theories put forward, and the points made
Wednesday, 21 January 2015
Wednesday, 10 December 2014
Greece in the Euro: Economic delinquency or system failure?
Adam Bennett (SEESOX Associate; Academic Visitor, St Antony’s College, Oxford)
On November 26, Eleni Panagiotarea, research fellow of the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy in Athens, returned to Oxford (for the first time since completing her PhD) to reflect on the predicament of Greece and the Euro at a SEESOX seminar in the European Studies Centre (ESC). Greece and the Euro, the Euro, and Greece – separately and together – have been recurring topics of debate at the ESC ever since the onset of the Eurozone crisis. The experience of Greece, at the bluntest end of this economic earthquake, encapsulates dramatically many of the dilemmas and stresses that have rocked the currency union. As Eleni made clear in her presentation, despite the declarations of victory from the ECB and ESM, this sorry saga is not yet over.
The seminar was held at an unusually timely juncture, with the IMF (as lead player of the troika) poised to undertake the sixth review of the Extended Fund Arrangement, amid calls from some quarters that conditions now permit an early end to this arrangement (currently scheduled to expire in March 2016), making this potentially the last review and the last dose of the hated conditionality. With the European funding component of the Troika’s package coming to an end anyway in December, and with Ireland and Portugal already out of the clutches of the IMF, there was an eagerness in Greece to graduate (to use an IMF term) from its program. But was Greece really ready to do this?
The seminar was held at an unusually timely juncture, with the IMF (as lead player of the troika) poised to undertake the sixth review of the Extended Fund Arrangement, amid calls from some quarters that conditions now permit an early end to this arrangement (currently scheduled to expire in March 2016), making this potentially the last review and the last dose of the hated conditionality. With the European funding component of the Troika’s package coming to an end anyway in December, and with Ireland and Portugal already out of the clutches of the IMF, there was an eagerness in Greece to graduate (to use an IMF term) from its program. But was Greece really ready to do this?
Friday, 5 December 2014
My Child: When parents of LGBTs in Turkey speak out
Funda Ustek (Post-doctoral Researcher,
Department of Sociology, Goldsmiths, University of London)
On 28 November 2014, Can Candan’s multi-award winning
documentary “My Child” featuring the parents of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and
transgender) individuals in Turkey was screened at SEESOX with the
participation of the director Can Candan, co-producer H. Metehan Ozkan and parent
Sema Yakar. The documentary takes us through the journey of the parents of LGBT
individuals as they are intimately sharing their experiences of what it means
to be parents, family, activists in a conservative, blatantly homophobic and
transphobic society.
Sunday, 23 November 2014
25 years of transition in Central and Eastern Europe and its impact on the economy
Jonathan Scheele (SEESOX Associate; Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)
On 18 November, Rainer Muenz, Head of Research at Erste Bank, Vienna, gave a seminar, convened jointly by ESC and SEESOX, “On the doorstep between Brussels and Moscow”, looking at the economic prospects for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe – new Member States and candidates. He delivered a master class in clarity and concision, marshalling complex data sets to render his thinking easily accessible to all.
He began by remarking that there was snow on economic expectations – how should we interpret this? His conclusion was far from reassuring. The CEE countries could, pre-crisis, expect their growth differential against western Europe to allow their GDP to converge to the EU average within two to three generations; post-crisis, with a much lower growth differential on current trends, convergence to the EU average will take a lifetime.
On 18 November, Rainer Muenz, Head of Research at Erste Bank, Vienna, gave a seminar, convened jointly by ESC and SEESOX, “On the doorstep between Brussels and Moscow”, looking at the economic prospects for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe – new Member States and candidates. He delivered a master class in clarity and concision, marshalling complex data sets to render his thinking easily accessible to all.
He began by remarking that there was snow on economic expectations – how should we interpret this? His conclusion was far from reassuring. The CEE countries could, pre-crisis, expect their growth differential against western Europe to allow their GDP to converge to the EU average within two to three generations; post-crisis, with a much lower growth differential on current trends, convergence to the EU average will take a lifetime.
The crisis in Greece and Southern Europe: A Whodunnit
David Madden (SEESOX Associate; Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)
Professor Loukas Tsoukalis spoke on this subject at SEESOX on 14 November. He spoke mainly about Greece as a catalyst in the crisis: and also about Italy, Spain and Portugal (and Ireland as an honorary member of the Southern European group): less about Cyprus, where the main problem had been over-exposure of Cypriot banks to Greek government debt.
Although a whodunnit, there was not yet a happy ending in sight. The worst economic crisis since WW2 would continue to have profound effects, and shake integration projects. The series of matryoshka dolls got uglier: the bursting of the biggest international bubble since 1929, a systemic crisis of the Eurozone (a currency without a state), and national failures of unsustainable economic models and dysfunctional political systems.
Professor Loukas Tsoukalis spoke on this subject at SEESOX on 14 November. He spoke mainly about Greece as a catalyst in the crisis: and also about Italy, Spain and Portugal (and Ireland as an honorary member of the Southern European group): less about Cyprus, where the main problem had been over-exposure of Cypriot banks to Greek government debt.
Although a whodunnit, there was not yet a happy ending in sight. The worst economic crisis since WW2 would continue to have profound effects, and shake integration projects. The series of matryoshka dolls got uglier: the bursting of the biggest international bubble since 1929, a systemic crisis of the Eurozone (a currency without a state), and national failures of unsustainable economic models and dysfunctional political systems.
Monday, 26 May 2014
Reflections on Turkey between two elections
Melis Evcimik (St Antony's College, Oxford)
On 21st May, Gamon McLellan (SOAS Near and Middle East Department) presented a talk on Turkey, following the local government elections on 30th March and looking ahead to the first direct election of a president in August and the parliamentary general election due in June 2015. The session was chaired by Dr. Anastasakis. Since 13 May, McLellan said, Turkey had been in mourning for the 301 victims of the mining disaster at Soma, in Manisa province, raising questions about industrial safety and how the government had discharged its responsibilities. European headlines had illustrated how the disaster had given fresh ammunition to European opponents of Turkey’s EU membership. Safety and working conditions at the mine had been atrocious, and an opposition parliamentary motion in October 2013 demanding an investigation into the safety at the mine had been defeated by the ruling AK Party majority. The government’s position had not been helped by the Prime Minister’s press conference in Soma, or by the videos apparently showing assaults on and insults against members of the traumatized community during Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s walk-about there, with security forces using tear gas and water cannon and eventually closing the town to outsiders.
On 21st May, Gamon McLellan (SOAS Near and Middle East Department) presented a talk on Turkey, following the local government elections on 30th March and looking ahead to the first direct election of a president in August and the parliamentary general election due in June 2015. The session was chaired by Dr. Anastasakis. Since 13 May, McLellan said, Turkey had been in mourning for the 301 victims of the mining disaster at Soma, in Manisa province, raising questions about industrial safety and how the government had discharged its responsibilities. European headlines had illustrated how the disaster had given fresh ammunition to European opponents of Turkey’s EU membership. Safety and working conditions at the mine had been atrocious, and an opposition parliamentary motion in October 2013 demanding an investigation into the safety at the mine had been defeated by the ruling AK Party majority. The government’s position had not been helped by the Prime Minister’s press conference in Soma, or by the videos apparently showing assaults on and insults against members of the traumatized community during Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s walk-about there, with security forces using tear gas and water cannon and eventually closing the town to outsiders.
Friday, 16 May 2014
After the elections: Serbia on its European path
David Madden (Senior Member, St Antony's College, Oxford)
The Serbian Ambassador in London, Dr Ognjen Pribicevic, spoke on the above subject at SEESOX on 12 May. David Madden chaired. The Ambassador summarised the outcome of the March elections. The Serbian Progressive Party had won almost 50% of the vote, and 167/250 seats in Parliament. The party leader, Vucic, was now Prime Minister. There was no mathematical necessity for a coalition, but Vucic had chosen the former PM and leader of the Socialist Party, Dacic, to be Foreign Minister. Not one MP was anti-EU. This was probably unique in Europe. The other key event was the opening of EU accession talks on 21 January.
The number one issue was the economy. Unemployment was about 25%, the public sector was over-sized leading to budgetary problems, and although a firm – and popular - start had been made in fighting organised crime and corruption, this remained a problem. The strategy was to begin with austerity with a 10% cut in public salaries (with no action on pensions yet); and then to introduce new laws on labour relations, encouraging entrepreneurs and FDI. In June there would be laws to simplify licensing requirements, not least to reduce the scope for corruption. On cooperation with neighbours, he highlighted Vucic‘s visit to Sarajevo on 13 May, and continuing work on implementation and extension of the Brussels Agreements. On bilateral relations with the UK, he emphasised the new phase, with particular emphasis on trade, investment, culture and the history of friendship and personal contacts. Today’s Serbia was a country of pop and folk festivals, tourism, good food etc: a member of the European family, and a country in transition.
The Serbian Ambassador in London, Dr Ognjen Pribicevic, spoke on the above subject at SEESOX on 12 May. David Madden chaired. The Ambassador summarised the outcome of the March elections. The Serbian Progressive Party had won almost 50% of the vote, and 167/250 seats in Parliament. The party leader, Vucic, was now Prime Minister. There was no mathematical necessity for a coalition, but Vucic had chosen the former PM and leader of the Socialist Party, Dacic, to be Foreign Minister. Not one MP was anti-EU. This was probably unique in Europe. The other key event was the opening of EU accession talks on 21 January.
The number one issue was the economy. Unemployment was about 25%, the public sector was over-sized leading to budgetary problems, and although a firm – and popular - start had been made in fighting organised crime and corruption, this remained a problem. The strategy was to begin with austerity with a 10% cut in public salaries (with no action on pensions yet); and then to introduce new laws on labour relations, encouraging entrepreneurs and FDI. In June there would be laws to simplify licensing requirements, not least to reduce the scope for corruption. On cooperation with neighbours, he highlighted Vucic‘s visit to Sarajevo on 13 May, and continuing work on implementation and extension of the Brussels Agreements. On bilateral relations with the UK, he emphasised the new phase, with particular emphasis on trade, investment, culture and the history of friendship and personal contacts. Today’s Serbia was a country of pop and folk festivals, tourism, good food etc: a member of the European family, and a country in transition.
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