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Monday, 5 May 2025

European defence: How can the EU best work with the UK and other non-EU States? And will it?

On April 29, 2025, a seminar at St Antony’s College, University of Oxford, brought together experts to examine how the European Union can best engage with the United Kingdom and other non-EU states in the context of evolving security and defence challenges. The panel featured Brendan Devlin, EU Visiting Fellow at St Antony’s College; Luigi Scazzieri, Senior Policy Analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies; and Armida van Rij, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. The discussion was chaired by Professor Timothy Garton Ash, Professor of European Studies at St Antony’s College. The speakers offered insights into the potential for a new European Defence Procurement Treaty, the implications for non-EU states such as the UK, and the broader geopolitical and institutional dynamics shaping European defence cooperation.

Brendan Devlin introduced the idea of a European Defence Procurement Treaty that would include both EU and non-EU countries. Drawing on the 2005 Energy Community Treaty as a precedent, he proposed a treaty framework that would operate under qualified majority voting, allowing it to function efficiently despite an expanded membership. He stressed the importance of ensuring “equivalence of esteem” for non-EU countries, in contrast to the EU’s traditional enlargement approach, which he described as a "take-it-or-leave-it" process that limits third countries’ influence. Devlin also argued for granting the treaty legal personality and rights, which would allow it to administer funds and engage in host government agreements. He proposed that participation should not be contingent on accepting the EU’s four fundamental freedoms, thereby offering flexibility for third-country involvement. Additionally, he suggested that the treaty include provisional application and sunset clauses to enable it to enter into force before full ratification and to allow it to expire automatically over time, avoiding the pitfalls of institutional permanence. He noted that EU directives—specifically Directives 2009/81/EC and 2009/43/EC—could serve as a legal foundation for this treaty, although he emphasised that real progress would require political initiative and a shared strategic outlook.