The second Trump Administration: Implications for South East Europe

On 12 March, 2025, SEESOX hosted a seminar exploring the potential trajectory of U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, with a particular focus on Europe, the Western Balkans, and Turkey. The panel featured Joan Hoey, Editor of the Economist Intelligence Unit’s flagship annual Democracy Index; Oana Lungescu, the longest-serving NATO Spokesperson and Romanian journalist; and Daniel Dombey, Executive News Editor at the Financial Times. The discussion was chaired by Othon Anastasakis.

Joan Hoey opened the seminar by characterising Donald Trump’s primary focus as domestic reconstruction rather than foreign affairs. According to Hoey, Trump’s overarching objective is to consolidate domestic governance and authority, rather than to seek international legitimacy through foreign policy exploits. Nonetheless, this inward focus will inevitably shape his approach abroad—particularly his determination to curtail overseas commitments that deplete U.S. resources.

Hoey emphasised that Trump is serious about negotiating an end to conflicts such as the Russo-Ukrainian War, aiming to prevent further crises that could entangle the United States. In regions like the Balkans, the administration would likely move away from the political engineering efforts seen under President Biden, instead prioritising stability and the containment of Russian and Chinese influence.

Although the Balkans may not initially be a high priority, Hoey suggested they could re-emerge on Washington’s agenda, especially given factors such as Trump Jr.’s business interests in Serbia and wider Eastern Europe, and Elon Musk’s engagement with Romania’s elections. Bilateral relations would likely be elevated, but through a transactional lens—Balkan leaders would be expected to align with U.S. preferences in areas such as energy and defence procurement.Hoey illustrated this dynamic through examples of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. She noted a potential U.S. effort to resolve Serbia’s standoff, which enables Russian and Chinese influence, possibly paving the way for a return of U.S. troops. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, while no major shifts are expected in the absence of American forces, some local authorities may see a Republican administration as an opportunity for internal reform.

Oana Lungescu expanded on the theme of complexity, highlighting the confusing mix of formal U.S. policymaking and informal, unpredictable influences. While the Trump administration would likely advocate for stability and the containment of Russian and Chinese influence in Southeast Europe, these objectives are complicated by the presence of "informal actors" such as Trump Jr. and others.

In countries like Montenegro and North Macedonia, Lungescu observed that civil societies are often left uncertain about who holds real authority in Washington. In Kosovo, Trump-linked figures have further muddied the waters through private ventures, such as large real estate projects in Belgrade—areas previously restricted by NATO.

Despite rhetoric promoting stability, Lungescu warned that interventions in local elections and contradictory actions create space for spoilers and instability. Nevertheless, she noted that on formal fronts, U.S. policy continues to align closely with NATO and EU priorities, as illustrated by NATO reserve forces deployed in Bosnia to maintain peace.

Daniel Dombey placed the discussion within the broader context of deglobalisation and the rise of transnational politics. He situated Trump’s foreign policy within a historical reaction to the three great waves of globalisation: the collapse of Bretton Woods, China's accession to the WTO, and the enlargement of the EU and NATO. Dombey argued that Trump’s scepticism toward globalisation—also evident in Biden’s cautious China policy—marks a shift towards a more transactional and predictable model of international engagement.

Turning to Turkey, Dombey outlined areas where Trump’s policies have had dramatic effects: the reopening of Kurdish peace initiatives, shifts in Turkey’s perspective on EU relations through the PKK lens, and broader dynamics involving Iraq and Iran. Despite significant challenges, Turkey, he suggested, maintains complex and multifaceted ties with both the United States and Europe.

Dombey also noted that metropolitan elites and real estate interests—especially regarding Syria—are playing an increasingly influential role. He warned that the evolving international order demands smarter, more politically attuned strategies from all actors, moving beyond traditional economic models of globalisation.

The discussion concluded that a second Trump administration would likely recalibrate U.S. foreign policy towards domestic consolidation and strategic resource preservation, adopting a more transactional and selective approach to international engagement. Regions such as the Balkans and Turkey would face reduced direct intervention but heightened expectations to align with American strategic imperatives, particularly regarding Russia and China.