After Turkey's elections: A change of direction or more of the same?

On 28 June 2023, the Global Strategy Forum hosted, together with SEESOX, a seminar in London on the theme After Turkey’s Elections: a change of direction or more of the same? Speakers were Mehmet Karli (SEESOX), Bașak Kale (Middle East Technical University, Ankara) and Othon Anastasakis (SEESOX). The seminar was chaired by Lord Lothian (GSF Chairman) and David Madden (SEESOX).

Mehmet Karli highlighted the favourable circumstances in which the opposition had entered the campaign. Rampant inflation, creating a cost-of-living crisis, alongside a failed government response to the earthquake, and popular fatigue at the long rule of the AKP made the election look impossible to lose. But Erdogan had succeeded in consolidating his longstanding 52/48 majority: how?

Principally, the elections were simply not fair, with state control of the media, foreign aid allowing voter friendly offers despite the economic crisis, and the progressive elimination of opposition figures. The opposition had also selected a poor candidate, losing it support from the centre right nationalists. The immediate impact of the economic crisis had been overestimated, and the opposition only really campaigned during the election period.

For now, there were no signs of democratic reform, but rather entrenchment of strongman politics in Turkey. The opposition alliance had fractured, with the Kurds split, all creating a risk of loss of opposition control of the cities at the local elections in 2024.

Turkey’s general elections 2023: What next?”

On the 14th of June 2023, the European Studies Centre hosted its final event of the academic year, entitled “Turkey’s general elections 2023: What next?” The panellists were Mehmet Karli (SEESOX), Karabekir Akkoyunlu (SOAS University of London), and Dimitar Bechev (Oxford School of Global and Area Studies). Othon Anastasakis (St Antony’s College, Oxford) chaired the event.

In his presentation, Karli reviewed voting trends in Turkey and outlined six reasons for the failure of the united opposition to Erdogan. He pointed out that Erdogan’s vote share has stayed more or less the same since 2014, and that the only difference in this election was that the opposition had consolidated. Despite this achievement and other factors, such as the recent earthquake and the floundering economy, the opposition has lost yet another election. On the parliamentary level, the AKP scored one of its worst results in recent history, but this was made up for by other parties in the ruling alliance. Meanwhile, the CHP received a historically low share of MPs despite staying on a similar level.

The first reason for the opposition’s failure was Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Rather than choosing a consensus candidate, the CHP insisted on fielding Kılıçdaroğlu and alienated a number of voters from the allied IYIP. Secondly, entering the parliamentary elections as a unitary alliance proved to be a failing strategy. Most of the traditional conservative Islamists who could have voted for one of the smaller parties decided not to vote for opposition candidates because they were running under the CHP banner. Furthermore, As the Kurdish party left the alliance and did not put forward a candidate, its voting share went down significantly.